Mortgage Rates Today, Mar. 27, 2025: GDP Data Due Today. But Will Rates Be More Affected by Tariff News?
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.75% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.79%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.04%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.14%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday evening, after markets closed, we learned of a new tariff. From Apr. 3, a 25% levy will be charged on all imported vehicles and many automotive parts, including on cars and trucks built in Mexico and Canada by U.S. manufacturers.
The New York Times called this "a measure that could encourage companies to open up more U.S. factories but will disrupt supply chains and most likely increase prices for American consumers significantly."
At least in the short term, this could be good for mortgage rates, driving them downward. Other recent news about new or bigger tariffs has tended to cause stock markets to fall, taking bond yields with them. Mortgage rates are largely determined by the yield on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security.
Markets were already counting down to Apr. 2, when a whole new tranche of tariffs is due to be unveiled. Some think bond yields might fall in response to those.
However, MarketWatch yesterday quoted a paper by Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research. He thought stock markets "may recover as investors realize that while more trade war announcements are ahead, the ‘worst may be over.’"
If Papic is right, we might see mortgage rates heading higher again soon after Apr. 2. But we'll have to wait to see whether his analysis is correct. As we suggested yesterday, some are skeptical.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.75% | 6.78% | +0.01% | +0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.79% | 5.85% | -0.02% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.04% | 7.24% | +0.01% | +0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.08% | 6.23% | -0.01% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.11% | 6.25% | +0% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.14% | 7.16% | -0.01% | +0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.78% | 6.82% | +0.03% | -0.08% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.85% | 6.88% | +0.01% | +0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.78% | 5.83% | -0.02% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.04% | 7.24% | +0.01% | +0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.18% | 6.32% | +0.05% | +0.11% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.92% | 6.96% | +0.03% | +0% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently, especially over tariffs.
Mortgage rates today
This morning's MarketWatch economic calendar contains several reports. But most of them rarely affect mortgage rates unless they contain truly shocking data.
One that could have an impact is the final reading of gross domestic product (GDP) during the fourth quarter of 2024. That third reading is expected to remain unchanged since the second (February) reading of 2.3%.
With GDP reports, mortgage rates tend to fall when figures are lower than expected and rise when they're higher. But we shouldn't be surprised if yesterday evening's tariff announcement overshadows this and all of today's reports.
Tomorrow
There are two reports tomorrow that have real potential to move mortgage rates appreciably, depending on what they say. They are:
- February PCE price index — The Federal Reserve's favorite gauge of inflation
- March consumer sentiment index
We'll brief you on each of those tomorrow morning.
