Mortgage Rates Today, Mar. 24, 2025: A More Consequential Week Ahead
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.67% today, an increase of 0.15% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.73%, up by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.94%, having risen by 0.09. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.06%, reflecting an increase of 0.35%.
The bigger picture
In theory, any economic report can move markets and mortgage rates if it contains sufficiently shocking data. But, in reality, it's only a handful of reports that routinely make an appreciable difference. Those are (roughly in order of importance):- Jobs report
- Consumer price index
- Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — The Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation
- Retail sales
Some other reports sometimes affect mortgage rates, but most of the big changes are driven by those four. And one of them is due this Friday, the PCE price index.
Also on this week's calendar is the final reading of gross domestic product (GDP) during the final quarter of 2024 (Thursday), the consumer confidence index (tomorrow), and the consumer sentiment index (Friday). Those might also bring movements if they surprise Wall Street.
Having said all that, markets have been distracted recently by news about tariffs and fears about a recession or a period of "stagflation" (stagnant growth at the same time as inflation). And they've tended to react less than normal to economic reports.
All this makes movements in mortgage rates even less predictable than usual. The good news is that news and those fears tend to be good for those rates. And there's plenty of those around.
For example, on Saturday, Dr. Torsten Sløk, Apollo's chief economist, published a chart showing that stocks that rely on consumers' discretionary spending are significantly underperforming those that provide consumer staples, " ... suggesting that investors are starting to worry about future consumer spending on big-ticket items such as cars, washing machines, and mobile phones," says Sløk.
The U.S. economy is highly dependent on consumer spending for GDP growth. So, this week's consumer sentiment and confidence indices might well carry more sway than usual if they confirm fears of significant falls.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.67% | 6.7% | +0.15% | -0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.73% | 5.78% | +0.08% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.94% | 7.14% | +0.09% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6% | 6.15% | +0.16% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.95% | 6.09% | -0.35% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.06% | 7.08% | +0.35% | -0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.59% | 6.62% | +0.31% | -0.19% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.77% | 6.8% | +0.13% | -0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.72% | 5.77% | +0.09% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.93% | 7.13% | +0.09% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.04% | 6.19% | +0.1% | -0.25% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.74% | 6.78% | +0.22% | -0.08% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently.
Mortgage rates today
Two economic reports are scheduled for publication today, according to the MarketWatch economic calendar. They're March purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) from S&P Global for the services and manufacturing sectors.
PMIs measure activity in organizations' buying departments. So, they can be a pretty good guide to future economic activity.
And they sometimes affect mortgage rates. While PMIs published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) are often more influential than those from S&P, that's not always the case.
Markets are expecting today's services PMI to show a slight improvement (up to 51.5 from February's 51.0) and the manufacturing one to show a decline, to 51.5 from 52.7. Lower-than-expected figures tend to help mortgage rates fall.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's consumer confidence index is likely to be the most consequential of tomorrow's reports for the reasons laid out above. Markets are expecting a deterioration: to 95.0 from 98.3 previously. Again, for mortgage rates, it's the lower the better.
