Some were concerned that rising mortgage rates might kill the spring housing market. But, in its March Market Report, Zillow came through with some good news this week that could help those worries evaporate.
"There were 281,546 newly pending listings in March, second-highest of any month since August 2022," said Zillow's report. "Both the 4.6% annual increase and 29.8% monthly increase in newly pending listings are the highest for any March since 2021."
Meanwhile, home prices continue to rise, though very gradually. They were up 0.8% annually.
And "inventory" (the number of homes for sale) climbed for the 28th consecutive month on an annualized basis, mentions Zillow.
Realtor.com Shares the Outlook
A new report, published Apr. 9, from Realtor.com bears out Zillow's optimism, at least in most parts of the country. Realtor.com unveiled its new "Market Clock," an at-a-glance graphic that shows whether each major metro's real estate market favors buyers or sellers.
The clock works like this: A reading of 11, 12 or one o'clock indicates the market favors buyers, while one at five, six or seven o'clock suggests sellers are in the stronger position. Between those six numbers, readings suggest the balance of power is shifting in that market, with lower numbers showing a swing in sellers' favor and higher ones suggesting buyers' positions are improving.
Right now, Realtor.com says that a little more than 60% of metros are buyer-friendly while 26% remain sellers' markets. That, together with high inventory, should encourage buyers to dip their toes into the real estate market.
As always with housing markets, the regional variations are stark. However, understanding local dynamics is crucial for home buyers.
"A national picture is useful, but when making a real estate decision, the local details are what really matter," said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, in a statement. "Right now, a homebuyer in Houston or San Antonio is navigating a very different market than someone in Hartford or Milwaukee."
Regional Variations
"The regional picture is varied, with all 8 buyer's markets located in the South (7) or West (1) and most of the 13 seller's markets coming from the Midwest (7) and Northeast (3)," says Realtor.com in a news release. "Of the metros currently classified as buyer's markets, 5 of 8 are in either Florida or Texas."
This list includes Austin, Texas, as well as Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando, and Miami, all in Florida.
"All 8 buyer's market metros currently sit in what the framework calls 'Early Buyer' conditions – meaning inventory is growing, price cuts are common, buyers are starting to hold the upper hand, and their negotiating leverage is likely to get even stronger in the coming months."
Things are very different elsewhere. Seller's markets are most common in the Midwest and Northeast, with four of the top 50 at six o'clock, indicating what Realtor.com calls a "Peak Seller" position.
So, home buyers searching in Florida and parts of Texas may find themselves closing on real bargains this spring.
Mortgage Rates Remain a Wild Card
Everything looks set for a healthy real estate market this spring. But we must be realistic and recognize a risk that could spoil everything.
On Apr. 9, Freddie Mac reported that the weekly average mortgage rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan stood at 6.37%. That was lower than the previous week, but significantly higher than the 5.98% seen on Feb. 25. The last time they were higher (excluding last week) was in September 2025.
Back on Feb. 25, we had no idea that conflict was on the horizon and that an upward trend in oil prices and inflation would cause mortgage rates to rise in March, peaking at 6.46% on Apr. 1. Hope that upheaval in the Middle East would soon abate due to a ceasefire resulted in this week's fall.
However, what happens next is anyone's guess. A re-escalation or extension of the conflict would likely send mortgage rates higher. If the turmoil persists, those rates could easily stray above 7%.
However, even an immediate and complete end to hostilities is likely to take many months to be fully reflected in markets. It will take time to repair the damage to oil infrastructure and for global trade in hydrocarbons, fertilizer, and other commodities to return to anything close to normality.
In the meantime, gas and other consumer prices will probably remain elevated. So, we doubt we'll see sub-6% mortgage rates at any point in the near future.
