Refinances surged this week as borrowers took advantage of falling mortgage rates following last week's grim jobs report.
Refinance numbers surged this week as borrowers rushed to take advantage of lower mortgage rates spurred by a disastrous jobs report August 1.
In its weekly report on mortgage activity, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) wrote, "The Refinance Index increased 5 percent from the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago."
“Mortgage rates moved lower last week, following declining Treasury yields as economic data releases signaled a weakening U.S. economy," said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, in a statement. "As a result, the 30-year fixed rate decreased for the third straight week to 6.77 percent.”
In fact, mortgage rates have been even more attractive this calendar week than over the different seven-day period the MBA covers. On Monday (Aug. 5), Mortgage Research Network found the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 6.55% and 6.52% today.
Mortgage News Daily reckons these rates are currently at their lowest point since Oct. 4, 2024.
“Refinance applications increased to their strongest pace in four weeks after being on a downward trend the prior three weeks," Kan continued. "The refinance share increased to almost 42 percent [of all mortgage applications], its highest level since April.”
Will low mortgage rates last?
At the best of times, nobody can say where mortgage rates will move in the future. And this is far from the best of times because exceptional uncertainty stalks markets and the wider economy.
Economists sharply disagree over several questions:
- Will tariffs affect economic growth?
- Might they cause a spike in inflation?
- Will any such spike be transient or persistent?
- How might a much higher government debt ceiling and deficit (up $3.4 trillion) affect consumer borrowing costs?
And those are just some of the known unknowns. The unexpected tends to turn up regularly.
But, on Aug. 4, Yahoo! Finance published an analysis that matches our own and that of many other observers of mortgage rates:
"If you’re looking for a substantial interest rate drop in 2025, you’ll likely be left waiting. The latest news from the Federal Reserve and other key economic data point toward steady mortgage rates on par with what we see today."
In other words, many — maybe most — experts see current low mortgage rates as being unlikely to last. And, if you're thinking of refinancing, you might do well to act quickly, both in getting in your application and locking your rate.
Of course, there are never guarantees that rates won't fall further. But many think they're more likely to rise back up to recent levels.
