The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.94% today, a decrease of 0.06% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.97%, down by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.26%, having dropped by 0.07. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.55%, reflecting an increase of 0.06%.
The bigger picture
The House passed the "one, big, beautiful" tax and spending bill in the small hours of yesterday morning. So, how come mortgage rates inched lower later that day?
Well, there are various theories for the tiny fall. First, markets knew the legislation would pass soon and were braced for it. Secondly, it passed by only a single vote. Thirdly, some investors were simply "buying the dip," meaning they were cashing in on Wednesday's movement.
And fourthly, it's looking likely that the bill will take a long time to pass, given some opposition among majority senators. Some doubt it will be enacted before late summer, given that Senate amendments have to return to the House for representatives' agreement, which could be the start of an extended to-ing and fro-ing.
That gives investors plenty of time to chew over the proposals' implications and react at their leisure. And that might provide a chance for mortgage rates to fall back further, at least for a while.
However, whether or not they do will likely largely depend on announcements over future tariff rates on imports, which should begin to emerge soon. If those rates are lower than expected, that could be an opportunity for mortgage rates to fall back more decisively.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.94% | 6.97% | -0.06% | +0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.97% | 6.02% | -0.08% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.26% | 7.46% | -0.07% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.41% | 6.56% | -0.04% | +0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.21% | 6.36% | -0.05% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.55% | 7.57% | +0.06% | +0.29% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.86% | 6.9% | +0.08% | +0.13% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7% | 7.03% | -0.07% | +0.06% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.94% | 5.99% | -0.09% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.24% | 7.43% | -0.06% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.47% | 6.62% | -0.03% | +0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.93% | 6.97% | +0.03% | +0.12% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Here's what Comerica Bank's economic team is expecting from today's data: "New home sales likely took a breather following an outsized increase in March."
Mortgage rates today
There's only one report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. That's new home sales in April. They're expected to fall to 695,000 from 724,000 in March.
It's unlikely to move mortgage rates far unless it contains truly shocking data. And, judging from recent reports, even wildly unexpected figures may not have much impact.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to deliver a commencement address on Sunday afternoon. Markets always listen to him carefully, but you may wonder whether he'd choose such an event to deliver a headline-grabbing speech.
Next week brings some more interesting economic reports than this week has provided. However, markets have been obsessed with news on tariffs and deficits recently to the point that few such reports have had much impact.
