The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.94% today, an increase of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.01%, up by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.3%, having risen by 0.06. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.48%, reflecting a decrease of 0.06%.
The bigger picture
There was no news to trigger rises or falls in mortgage rates yesterday. But that may not last long.
The U.S. Treasury is scheduled to auction $16 billion of 20-year bonds today and another $18 billion in TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) is due to be sold tomorrow. The outcome of those auctions could be critical to mortgage rates.
If demand for these Treasury products is low, that could signal that investors are highly concerned about America's ability to repay its ballooning debts, and will require a higher yield to continue to extend credit. That would very likely push up mortgage rates.
On the other hand, were demand to be high, that could easily send mortgage rates lower.
We're not especially optimistic about these auctions because, as we wrote yesterday, foreigners are showing less inclination than normal to buy U.S. Treasurys. However, if markets have proved one thing recently, it's that they're in an unpredictable mood. So, let's not worry before the results come in.
"One big beautiful" tax-and-spend bill
Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal reported, "House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) has said he wants to vote on the [tax-and-spend] package as soon as Wednesday and no later than the coming Memorial Day weekend."
Also yesterday, The New York Times ran the headline, "U.S. Debt Is on Pace to Set a Record. (The Data Goes Back to 1790.)" It continued, "Without any changes to existing law, the Congressional Budget Office predicts the debt will rise to about 117 percent of the economy’s size by 2034, higher than the 1945 record."
However, the "one big beautiful" bill "would widen the gap further by extending and expanding tax cuts and increasing military spending, partly offset by spending cuts in other areas," said the Times. "The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group that favors debt reduction, estimates that the nation’s debt could be as high as 129 percent of the economy by 2034 under those plans."
You can see why some are shying away from buying government debt.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.94% | 6.98% | +0.03% | +0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.01% | 6.06% | +0.05% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.3% | 7.5% | +0.06% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.42% | 6.58% | +0.02% | +0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.26% | 6.4% | +0.04% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.48% | 7.5% | -0.06% | +0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.76% | 6.81% | -0.32% | -0.06% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.03% | 7.06% | +0.05% | +0.06% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.99% | 6.04% | +0.04% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.28% | 7.47% | +0.06% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.48% | 6.63% | +0.02% | +0.02% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.9% | 6.94% | -0.41% | -0.04% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Here's what Comerica Bank's economic team is expecting from this week's data:
"The economic calendar will be light this week. Existing home sales likely rose in April despite lower consumer confidence. However, new home sales likely took a breather following an outsized increase in March. The flash releases of the Manufacturing and Services PMIs [purchasing managers' indices] from S&P Global probably will show the manufacturing sector contracted slightly in May, while the services sector expanded modestly."
New home sales are due Friday, but all the other economic reports are scheduled for Thursday.
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
For a second day, the MarketWatch economic calendar has no economic report on it. So, any movement in mortgage rates today will likely be driven by emerging news concerning deficits, tariffs or anything else that affects the economy.
We'll brief you on tomorrow's economic reports before they're published. Read the Comerica Bank analysis (above) for more information.
