The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.94% today, an increase of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.98%, up by 0.12%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.26%, having risen by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.56%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates start this morning just a tiny bit higher than they were last Monday morning. We're lucky that falls late last week almost balanced out earlier rises.
At least this week, we don't have to worry whether markets will shrug off economic reports or respond to them normally. There are no blockbuster reports on the calendar. And apart from a couple of purchasing managers' indices due on Thursday, the few that are scheduled rarely affect mortgage rates.
Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean markets and those rates will be less volatile than recently. How much movement we see will continue to depend on news that affects the economy.
This week's potential flashpoints
For example, MarketWatch is predicting, " ... investors face another round of debt-related angst as markets prepared to open Sunday [in Asia] after Moody’s Ratings stripped the U.S. government of its last triple-A credit rating. Strategists warned the move, announced after the market close on Friday, could spark some near-term selling in stocks and Treasurys." Stock indices in Asia and Europe were lower overnight.
That reference to Treasurys is worrying. Mortgage rates often shadow Treasurys and especially the yield on 10-year notes. Any appreciable selling of those could push mortgage rates higher because bond prices and yields always move inversely.
We're also expecting news from Capitol Hill about proposals for tax and spending cuts. The New York Times reports, "A group of fiscal hard-liners on the [House] Budget Committee blocked the bill Friday morning."
Some bond investors are also concerned that the "big, beautiful bill" could blow up the deficit and add to the nation's debt mountain, leading to higher borrowing costs for the government, businesses and consumers alike. And, yes, that would likely mean higher mortgage rates, too.
Meanwhile, MarketWatch says, " ... countries will soon get letters detailing their tariff rates," quoting an official source. Wall Street has been hoping that the government will U-turn on some of the unexpectedly high tariff rates unveiled on April 2 and then paused for 90 days on April 9.
If these letters confirm that, mortgage rates might tumble. But, if they show high tariffs will resume once the 90-day pause is up, that could send those rates appreciably higher.
And, finally, some potentially good news. Following a damaging Brexit, Britain and the European Union (EU) seem to have agreed to reset relations overnight. Details are still emerging, but markets tend to like things that promote international trade (see tariffs).
Certainly, Brexit (when Britain quit membership of the EU) negatively affected mortgage rates here. However, this reset is on nothing like that scale. Still, it might help offset market reactions to Moody's Ratings Friday announcement.
So, just because we're light on economic data this week, it sure doesn't mean that mortgage rates will necessarily have a dull time.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.94% | 6.97% | +0.08% | +0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.98% | 6.03% | +0.12% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.26% | 7.46% | +0.05% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.43% | 6.58% | +0.11% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.21% | 6.36% | +0.08% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.56% | 7.57% | +0.03% | +0.21% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.24% | 7.29% | +0.18% | +0.43% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.99% | 7.02% | +0.08% | +0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.97% | 6.01% | +0.11% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.24% | 7.44% | +0.05% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.49% | 6.64% | +0.11% | +0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.55% | 7.57% | +0.15% | +0.65% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
The MarketWatch economic calendar has only one economic report on it today. That's leading economic indicators for April. And they're expected to deteriorate to -0.9% from March's -0.7%.
Higher-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones often drag them down. But leading economic indicators rarely have a perceptible effect.
There are no economic reports scheduled for tomorrow or Wednesday.
