The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.88% today, a decrease of 0.04% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.86%, down by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.15%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.36%, reflecting a decrease of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
As we predicted, yesterday's good news concerning the U.S.-China trade war harmed mortgage rates. Those rates often rise on positive economic news.
There are two reasons not be be too gloomy. First, yesterday's rise was modest.
And secondly, tariff damage is far from over, according to financial media. "Foreigners’ diminished faith in the dollar, lower earnings estimates and the highest tariffs in decades are still with us," said The Wall Street Journal's Markets A.M. e-newsletter yesterday, after the details of the trade talks were announced. "A complete economic decoupling from China wasn't Wall Street's base-case scenario, and at least some pain is already coming the global economy’s way. Multinationals’ executives are breathing sighs of relief this morning. Unfortunately, they still aren’t sure where or whether to build factories or order inventory. Global investors, who have lost more than Americans in their home currencies, are spooked."
MarketWatch concurred, running a story yesterday afternoon under the headline, "The stock market is cheering the U.S.-China trade deal, but the tariff damage is done."
If those publications are correct, markets may soon sober up after yesterday's post-announcement euphoria, allowing mortgage rates to fall back. However, don't expect big falls for a while. We may well be in for a period when those rates are subject to conflicting upward and downward pressure, and sustained and significant movements look unlikely for now.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.88% | 6.9% | -0.04% | -0.2% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.86% | 5.91% | -0.03% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.15% | 7.35% | +0% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.32% | 6.47% | -0.01% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.15% | 6.29% | +0.01% | -0.44% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.36% | 7.38% | -0.02% | +0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.16% | 7.2% | -0.07% | +0.15% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.92% | 6.95% | -0.06% | -0.22% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.84% | 5.89% | -0.04% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.14% | 7.34% | -0.01% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.38% | 6.54% | -0.03% | -0.22% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.5% | 7.52% | -0.04% | +0.44% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today
The most important economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar may well also be the most consequential for weeks. It's the consumer price index (CPI) for April.
Price indices have four main components. Two measure price changes during the reporting month (April) and two are year-over-year (YOY) figures, meaning, in this case, they cover May 1, 2024, to April 30, 2025.
There are two for each of those periods. The first is the straight CPI, which gauges price movements for all items in the survey.
The second is "core CPI," and this measures the same prices, excluding food and energy ones. By stripping out these often-volatile prices, a core reading is supposed to reveal the underlying trend.
Here, according to that MarketWatch calendar, is what markets are expecting from this morning's report, which is scheduled for publication at 8:30 a.m. (EDT):
- April CPI — Markets expect 0.2%, higher than March's -0.1%
- YOY CPI — Markets expect 2.4%, unchanged since March
- April core CPI — Markets expect 0.3%, higher than March's 0.1%
- YOY core CPI — Markets expect 2.8%, unchanged since March
Higher-than-expected figures could push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones could send them downward.
Also, this morning, we're due April's small business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business. This is expected to improve slightly. However, this report is likely to be overshadowed by the CPI.
Later this week
There are no economic reports tomorrow. However, we're due April's retail sales data on Thursday, along with the same month's producer price index (PPI), which is the CPI's little brother. Either of those could affect mortgage rates.
