The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.77% today, a decrease of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.73%, down by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.06%, having dropped by 0.11. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.19%, reflecting a decrease of 0.07%.
The bigger picture
The Fed
Yesterday's announcement by the Federal Reserve that it would hold general interest rates steady came as a surprise to no one. And, in his news conference that afternoon, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's message was much as we'd predicted.
In the official transcript, Powell set out by reminding reporters of the Fed's dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices. He continued:
"The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. The tariff increases announced so far have been significantly larger than anticipated. All of these policies are still
evolving, however, and their effects on the economy remain highly uncertain. As economic conditions evolve, we will continue to determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy [aka interest rate setting] based on the incoming data, the outlook, and the balance of risks.
"If the large increases in tariffs that have been announced are sustained, they are likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth, and an increase in unemployment," Powell said. "The effects on inflation could be short-lived — reflecting a one-time shift in the price level. It is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of the tariff effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully into prices, and, ultimately, on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored."
The Fed would normally respond to a slowdown in economic growth by cutting general interest rates. But it would normally respond to rising inflation by hiking those rates.
You can see its problem. The two elements of its dual mandate may soon come into conflict. Cutting rates prematurely could fuel inflation, while hiking them too aggressively could trigger a recession and push up unemployment. No wonder the Fed is maintaining its wait-and-see posture.
The CME FedWatch tool shows markets pricing in no change to rates in June. However, they're hoping for a small one in July and perhaps another in September.
In reality, future movements in general interest rates will depend on what happens to economic growth and inflation through the rest of the year and beyond. And mortgage rates will likely move in the direction taken by those other rates.
Other stuff
Hmm. Will markets buy such a framework as evidence of real progress in resolving the trade war? This is the first announcement since tariffs were paused on Apr. 9. If this reflects the pace of all negotiations, investors must be wondering where we'll be and what will happen at the end of the 90-day pause on Jul. 31.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.77% | 6.8% | -0.03% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.73% | 5.78% | -0.04% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.06% | 7.26% | -0.11% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.26% | 6.41% | -0.01% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.07% | 6.21% | -0.22% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.19% | 7.21% | -0.07% | -0.2% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.78% | 6.82% | +0.01% | +0.17% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.86% | 6.88% | -0.02% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.73% | 5.77% | -0.04% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.06% | 7.26% | -0.12% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.33% | 6.48% | -0.01% | +0.11% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.9% | 6.94% | +0.02% | +0.23% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar contains three economic reports. However, we'll be surprised if any of them move mortgage rates far (or at all). They'd have to reveal some shocking figures to do so.
The one most likely to generate a response comprises productivity numbers for the first quarter of 2025. They're expected to slump to -0.7% from +1.5% in the last quarter of 2024. A number lower than -0.7% might help mortgage rates fall a bit, while a higher one could nudge those rates upward.
Today, we're also due weekly new claims for unemployment benefits and wholesale inventories tomorrow, but those seldom trouble markets much.
No economic reports are due tomorrow, but a veritable swarm of senior Fed officials (11 of them) have speaking engagements that day. Their views on future cuts to general interest rates will be interesting but less authoritative than the Fed chair's news conference yesterday.
