Mortgage Rates Today, Mar. 31, 2025: Stagflation Stalks Markets
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.67% today, a decrease of 0.06% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.65%, down by 0.1%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.92%, having dropped by 0.07. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.02%, reflecting a decrease of 0.09%.
The bigger picture
On Saturday, a Barron's e-newsletter came with the headline, "Stagflation Nation." If you follow the financial press, you'll likely have seen the S-word frequently in recent weeks. But what does this portmanteau word, derived from stagnation and inflation, mean? That newsletter explained:
"Stagflation is an economic cycle defined by high inflation and stagnant economic growth, including higher unemployment. Many economists consider this to be one of the trickiest cycles for policymakers to manage, as trying to adjust policy to boost growth can exacerbate inflation, and vice versa.
"Investors hate stagflation too: consumption slows, which can in turn lead to lower corporate profits and higher volatility. The 1970s was the last time the U.S. economy navigated a period of stagflation. Equities generally saw losses in real terms then, as did Treasuries with longer-dated yields, according to a Deutsche Bank analysis of how different asset classes fared through stagflation."
The stagnation bit of stagflation can be good for mortgage rates. Those tend to fall when the economy is struggling and rise when it's thriving.
However, inflation almost always pushes up all interest rates, including mortgage rates. So, the two elements of stagflation conflict with each other.
Inflation and consumer sentiment
You could see that in action last Friday. That morning's core inflation data for February were a little warmer than markets were expecting. Had that been the day's only economic report, mortgage rates might have had a mildly bad day.
As it was, that morning's other report dragged mortgage rates moderately lower. That was the final consumer sentiment index for March. And it was appreciably worse than markets were expecting. The University of Michigan, which publishes the report, said:
"Consumer sentiment confirmed its early month reading and fell for the third straight month, plummeting 12% from February. The expectations
index plunged a precipitous 18% and has now lost more than 30% since November 2024. This month’s decline reflects a clear consensus across all demographic and political affiliations; Republicans joined independents and Democrats in expressing worsening expectations since February for their personal finances, business conditions, unemployment, and inflation. Consumers continue to worry about the potential for pain amid ongoing economic policy developments. Notably, two-thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest reading since 2009. This trend reveals a key vulnerability for consumers, given that strong labor markets and incomes have been the primary source of strength supporting consumer spending in recent years."
What this could mean for mortgage rates
Unfortunately, we can't bank on poor economic data always outweighing high inflation rates. You'll recall Barron's highlighting the 1970s as the last time stagflation stalked America. Well, a glance at Freddie Mac's archives for the decade from 1971-81 shows sharply rising mortgage rates over the period, peaking at 18.53% in October 1981.
Of course, we're still a long way from 1970s-style stagflation. With luck, we might even avoid it altogether. But the current rapidly deteriorating economic environment, coupled with sticky inflation, could mean trouble ahead.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.67% | 6.71% | -0.06% | +0.12% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.65% | 5.7% | -0.1% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.92% | 7.12% | -0.07% | +0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.98% | 6.13% | -0.08% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.01% | 6.16% | -0.07% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.02% | 7.05% | -0.09% | +0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.62% | 6.66% | -0.16% | -0.27% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.76% | 6.79% | -0.08% | +0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.63% | 5.68% | -0.11% | +-0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.91% | 7.11% | -0.07% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.09% | 6.24% | -0.06% | +0.12% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.73% | 6.77% | -0.13% | -0.08% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently, especially over tariffs.
Mortgage rates today
The only report on this morning's MarketWatch economic calendar is the March Chicago Business Barometer. We can't remember the last time that influenced mortgage rates.
Still, just in case, it is expected to deteriorate to 43.6 from 45.5 in March.
Later this week
Wednesday is "Liberation Day," when many new tariffs are scheduled to be unveiled. Mortgage rates could rise if the tariffs are milder than Wall Street fears. But those rates could fall if they're more savage than expected.
This morning's lead story in The Wall Street Journal suggests no final decisions have yet been made and says "an across-the-board hike of up to 20%" is back on the table. If that's announced on Wednesday, it could well send stock indices plunging, probably taking mortgage rates with them.
This week's other big day is Friday. That's when the March jobs report is due to land. And that's often the single most consequential economic report in any given month.
Meanwhile, there are reports that can be influential due on every day this week, starting tomorrow. We'll walk you through them all as the week progresses.
