Mortgage Rates Today, June 11, 2025: Big Inflation Report and Bond Auction Due Today

The bigger picture

Trade talks

Yesterday, trade delegations from the U.S. and China met in London. And that evening came the announcement that the two sides had reached an agreement about a framework for future talks.

That may not sound much, but it likely means that rare earths and magnets will again flow into the U.S. A shortage of those looked set to cause real damage to the American manufacturing sector.

Stock markets in Asia and Europe rose on the news, and they likely will in New York when they open. That may be unhelpful for mortgage rates, but other events today might help compensate for (or exacerbate) that.

Treasury auctions

Today, the U.S. Treasury is due to auction $39 billion in 10-year notes. Mortgage-backed securities' (MBSs') yields and, therefore, mortgage rates often shadow yields on 10-year notes. And tomorrow, a similar Treasury auction will offer $22 billion in 30-year bonds.

Such auctions are fairly routine. Indeed, some fear they might be eating up too big a share of investors' available cash.

"Over the past 12 months, roughly half of all fixed-income product [bonds] coming to the market has been Treasuries," wrote Dr. Torsten Sløk, Apollo's chief economist, on Monday. "This is not healthy. Half of credit issued in the economy should not be going to the government. ...

"The bottom line is that if the level of government debt were significantly lower, more dollars would be available for consumers to buy new cars and new houses, and for companies to build new factories," continued Sløk.

Meanwhile, some are worried that foreign investors are avoiding U.S. assets such as Treasurys and the dollar, which might mute demand at these auctions. If they're right, that could push up yields on Treasuries, dragging MBS yields (and mortgage rates) with them.

There are three reasons foreign investors might not be as keen to buy Treasurys as they once were:

1. Tariffs might bring about a spike in inflation that could prove "sticky," meaning persistent.
2. The tax-and-spending bill that is currently in Congress may increase the government's borrowing requirement by trillions over the next decade, allowing investors to demand higher yields to keep extending credit.
3. Section 899 of that bill, which permits a U.S. government to impose at will a tax on yields and capital gains made by foreign investors. If enacted, that would provide an additional risk that some foreigners may not be willing to take.

So, markets will be closely monitoring today's large auction of the benchmark 10-year note. And mortgage rates might rise if demand is weak or fall if it's strong.

For background, read A Surprise Factor Now Affecting Mortgage Rates: U.S. Treasury Auctions.

CPI

This morning's consumer price index (CPI) also has the potential to move mortgage rates appreciably. Markets are expecting a slight increase in the pace of price rises. Higher-than-expected actual figures could see mortgage rates rise. But lower-than-expected data might send those rates falling.

Coming up

Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.

Here's what Comerica Bank's economics team is expecting later this week:

"Inflation data will drive the economic narrative this week. The CPI and PPI [producer price index] probably rose modestly in May due to lower energy prices, while core CPI and PPI likely accelerated as businesses began passing tariffs on to their customers. The University of Michigan and NY Fed’s surveys of consumers are expected to show consumer inflation expectations edged lower but are still elevated, after the U.S. and China agreed to substantially reduce tariffs for 90 days. The partial tariff reprieve, along with the stock market’s outperformance in May, likely lifted consumer and business sentiment. The federal government likely posted a hefty deficit in May, as some of June’s outlays, such as social security payments and salaries, were made in May, since the first of June fell on a weekend."

Mortgage rates today and tomorrow

There are two economic reports on the MarketWatch economic calendar today. But the CPI is typically much more powerful than the monthly federal budget.

Lower-than-expected numbers tend to exert downward pressure on mortgage rates, while higher-than-expected ones usually push those rates upward. On-forecast data often leaves rates unchanged.

Today's CPI should contain four headline numbers. Two cover the reporting month (May). And the other two are year-over-year (YOY) figures, in this case, for Jun 1, 2024 - May 31, 2025.

One for each period is the straight CPI, which includes all prices in the survey. The other is "core" CPI, which is the same as the CPI except it excludes energy and food prices. Economists say those are so volatile they can skew the picture, and excluding them allows us to see the underlying trend.

Here's what MarketWatch says markets are expecting today for each of the four figures:

• May CPI — 0.2%, unchanged since April
• YOY CPI — 2.4%, slightly higher than April's 2.3%
• May core CPI — 0.3%, slightly higher than April's 0.2%
• YOY core CPI — 2.9%, slightly higher than April's 2.8%

Again, we need lower-than-expected numbers to stand a decent chance of falling mortgage rates.

Tomorrow and Friday

The CPI's little brother, the producer price index or PPI, is scheduled for tomorrow. It's usually much less influential than its big sister, but mortgage rates might still be vulnerable if it delivers unexpectedly bad news.

Friday should bring the preliminary June reading of the consumer sentiment index. We'll brief you more fully on both the PPI and that report before they're published.