The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.74% today, unchanged since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.71%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.01%, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.92%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Yesterday, the average weekly rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.74%, according to Freddie Mac. One year ago, it was 6.78%.
True, it bottomed out at 6.08% last September. But it spiked at 7.04% in January.
So, that's a whole year of hopes and fears only for us to end up incredibly close to where we started. Is that stasis likely to change anytime soon?
Future mortgage rates and homeownership affordability
It's certainly possible we'll see more movement over the next 18 months. Fannie Mae's July housing forecast expects mortgage rates to average 6.4% during the last quarter of this year, and then drift slowly lower in 2026, reaching 6.0% during the third and last quarters of next year.
According to the National Association of Realtors®, the "magic number" that's likely to tempt homebuyers back into the housing market is 6.0%. So, that number is in sight, if Fannie's right, but still a year away.
Still, there was some good news for first-time home buyers (but not existing homeowners) elsewhere in Fannie's forecast. It thinks that the growth in home prices will slow considerably.
In 2024, home prices rose by 4.8%. But Fannie expects them to increase by just 2.8% this year and 1.1% in 2026.
Whether first-time buyers can afford to be homeowners is decided by both mortgage rates and home prices. Slowing price rises and gently falling mortgage rates could provide a window of opportunity, assuming salaries continue to rise at a good pace.
Of course, all economic forecasts are highly speculative. And there are no guarantees. But, if you want to be a first-time buyer, now might be a good time to get your finances into shape so you're ready to act if things shape up the way Fannie hopes.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.74% | 6.77% | +0% | +0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.71% | 5.76% | -0.02% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.01% | 7.21% | -0.02% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.1% | 6.25% | -0.02% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.06% | 6.21% | -0.05% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.92% | 6.94% | +0% | -0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.78% | 6.82% | +0% | +0.22% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.78% | 6.81% | -0.03% | +0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.71% | 5.75% | -0.01% | +0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.99% | 7.19% | -0.02% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.15% | 6.3% | -0.01% | +0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.85% | 6.88% | +-0% | +0.22% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's what Comerica Bank's economics team is expecting from today's report: "Durable goods orders likely pulled back in June after a surge in May fueled by higher aircraft orders."
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar brings to an end a dull week for economic reports. There's only one scheduled for this morning, and that's for durable goods orders in June.
They're expected to contract by -11.1% that month, having grown by 16.4% in May. As Comerica explained, May was an outlier owing to exceptional orders for airplanes.
Next week brings a whole lot of much more exciting economic data, although there's nothing scheduled for Monday.
