The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.69% today, unchanged since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.68%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.98%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.91%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates fell yesterday but only by a tiny amount, according to Mortgage News Daily's calculations. Still, it was the fifth consecutive business day of small falls, and they've added up. They're now at a two-week low.
Regular readers will have gathered that yesterday's remarks at a banking conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell didn't frighten markets. Indeed, the official transcript shows he didn't mention either Fed independence or future cuts to general interest rates. Instead, he said the minimum necessary to kick off a Fed event.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent effectively backed Powell yesterday. "There’s nothing that tells me that he [Powell] should step down right now. He’s been a good public servant," said Bessent, quoted by CNBC. That support may well have helped mortgage rates to inch lower that day.
We're only one week from the next Fed rate announcement
Powell won't be able to remain so reticent when he hosts a news conference a week from today following the next meeting of the Fed's rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). He'll have to talk then about that day's Summary of Economic Projections, which includes where FOMC members expect interest rates to move in the foreseeable future.
It's highly unlikely that the FOMC will unveil a rate cut on July 30. Indeed, the CME FedWatch tool puts the odds of rates remaining where they currently are at 95.3%. That's based on investors' purchases of Fed Funds futures, which are effectively wagers on FOMC decisions.
It's a different story at the following FOMC meeting, scheduled for September 16 and 17. The FedWatch tool puts the odds of a small cut that day at 57.9%.
Whether or not that turns out to be correct will depend on key economic reports due between now and then. A slowing economy revealed by jobs reports, retail sales data and similar would probably put pressure on the Fed to lower rates more quickly than planned. However, signs of the inflation rate rising would likely force it to hold general interest rates steady — or even increase them if prices were climbing fast.
How the Fed influences mortgage rates
The Fed doesn't directly determine mortgage rates. But it does influence them.
The bond market that does decide mortgage rates tries to anticipate what the Fed will do, so FOMC rate announcements only affect mortgage rates on the day if the central bank surprises investors. When, as is usual, the Fed delivers what everyone's expecting, any cut or hike has already been baked into mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.69% | 6.72% | +0% | -0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.68% | 5.72% | +0% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.98% | 7.18% | +0.01% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.08% | 6.23% | +0.01% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6% | 6.15% | +0% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.91% | 6.93% | +-0% | -0.11% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.75% | 6.79% | +-0% | -0.12% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.74% | 6.77% | +0% | -0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.68% | 5.72% | +0% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.96% | 7.16% | +0.01% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.12% | 6.26% | +0.01% | -0.18% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.88% | 6.91% | +0.01% | -0.02% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and the Federal Reserve are especially influential at the moment.
Here's what Comerica Bank's economics team is expecting from this week's reports:
"New home sales likely rebounded slightly in June from depressed levels in May, while existing home sales likely fell. The housing market is in a funk, held back by high mortgage rates, bad affordability, and rising homeowners’ insurance premiums. Home listings are above late 2010s levels in the Sunbelt metros that boomed post-pandemic, but still below them in slower-growing metros on the Pacific Coast, in the Midwest, and in the Northeast. Strong growth of housing supply in the Sunbelt is translating into modest house price declines, although prices are still much higher than they were five or ten years ago.
"The manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) published by S&P Global likely improved modestly in the July flash readings as businesses anticipate a boost to sales in 2026 from the tax cut. The surveys will likely show input price inflation continues to run hotter than in 2024 or 2023. Durable goods orders likely pulled back in June after a surge in May fueled by higher aircraft orders."
Mortgage rates today
The only economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar concerns existing home sales in June. And that rarely has any perceptible consequences for mortgage rates
So, any movements in those rates today will likely be down to the emergence of economically sensitive news.
There's very little on this week's calendar that typically moves mortgage rates far — or at all. A couple of purchasing managers' indices due tomorrow morning probably have the best chance of having an impact. We'll brief you on them tomorrow morning, before their publication.
