The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.69% today, unchanged since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.68%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.98%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.91%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
We have recently written often about the independence of the Federal Reserve. That's because it — and especially Jerome Powell, its chair — have been coming under intense political pressure to lower general interest rates before senior officials judge the time is right.
Powell and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman have speaking engagements today at a banking conference. Bowman also has a TV appearance scheduled for 7:30 a.m. Wall Street will be listening closely for any signs that the Fed is caving to that pressure.
Why is Fed independence important?
Yesterday, two former Fed chairs, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, wrote a guest essay for the opinion pages of The New York Times. Their intent was to stress the vital importance of the Fed's independence to market confidence and the success of the economy.
"Of course, Fed policymakers, being human, make mistakes," they acknowledged. "But an overwhelming amount of evidence, drawn from the experiences of both the United States and other countries, has shown that keeping politics out of monetary policy decisions leads to better economic outcomes."
Their essay concluded: "The Fed’s credibility — its perceived willingness to make hard decisions based on data and nonpartisan analysis — is an important national asset. It is hard to acquire and easy to lose. That credibility requires that monetary policy be seen as independent from short-term political considerations. In the long run, preserving the Fed’s independence from politics is not about protecting a few individuals or a Washington bureaucracy. It’s about protecting America’s prosperity."
You may think that Bernanke and Yellen, as former Fed chiefs, would say that. But it's a view widely shared in markets globally.
And with good reason. Their essay provided two examples, from the late 1940s and the 1970s, when the Fed's yielding to political pressure to lower rates led to bouts of double-digit inflation.
What might this mean for mortgage rates?
We doubt that Powell and Bowman will show any signs of bending to political pressure today. And we can't be sure what will happen to mortgage rates if they do.
The prospect of reduced general interest rates might first send them sharply lower. But, once the implications for inflation of a compliant Fed sink in, that could quickly change.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.69% | 6.72% | +0% | -0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.68% | 5.72% | +0% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.98% | 7.18% | +0.01% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.08% | 6.23% | +0.01% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6% | 6.15% | +0% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.91% | 6.93% | +-0% | -0.11% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.75% | 6.79% | +-0% | -0.12% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.74% | 6.77% | +0% | -0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.68% | 5.72% | +0% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.96% | 7.16% | +0.01% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.12% | 6.26% | +0.01% | -0.18% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.88% | 6.91% | +0.01% | -0.02% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs are especially influential at the moment.
Here's what Comerica Bank's economics team is expecting from this week's reports:
"New home sales likely rebounded slightly in June from depressed levels in May, while existing home sales likely fell. The housing market is in a funk, held back by high mortgage rates, bad affordability, and rising homeowners’ insurance premiums. Home listings are above late 2010s levels in the Sunbelt metros that boomed post-pandemic, but still below them in slower-growing metros on the Pacific Coast, in the Midwest, and in the Northeast. Strong growth of housing supply in the Sunbelt is translating into modest house price declines, although prices are still much higher than they were five or ten years ago.
"The manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) published by S&P Global likely improved modestly in the July flash readings as businesses anticipate a boost to sales in 2026 from the tax cut. The surveys will likely show input price inflation continues to run hotter than in 2024 or 2023. Durable goods orders likely pulled back in June after a surge in May fueled by higher aircraft orders."
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. So, any movements will likely be down to the emergence of economically sensitive news, possibly concerning the Fed.
There's very little on this week's calendar that typically moves mortgage rates far — or at all. A couple of purchasing managers' indices due on Thursday morning probably have the best chance of having an impact. We'll brief you on them before their publication.
