The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.73% today, an increase of 0.05% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.71%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.02%, having dropped by 0.14. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.95%, reflecting an increase of 0.2%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday's economic reports were mostly better than expected. Given that they included the important retail sales figures, how come mortgage rates barely moved? You'd typically expect them to rise on good economic news.
Well, Mortgage News Daily provides an explanation. "After adjusting for inflation, the retail sales categories that speak to discretionary spending suggested an ongoing slowdown (something that would normally be good for rates)," it says.
Mortgage rates have hardly shifted this week, despite a couple of heavyweight economic reports. Today brings relative lightweights, suggesting that movements today, if any, will likely be caused by political news that affects the economy.
Freddie Mac reports that mortgage rates rose just a little during its Thursday-to-Thursday week. "The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage inched up this week and continues to stay within a narrow range under 7%. While overall affordability headwinds persist, rate stability coupled with moderately rising inventory may sway prospective buyers to act," said Sam Khater, Freddie’s chief economist. The organization's actual figures showed a 0.3% rise for that type of mortgage, to 6.75% from 6.72% the week before.
Meanwhile, in an e-newsletter yesterday, U.S. News warns against being overoptimistic about those rates improving significantly anytime soon. "Many homebuyers have been waiting for mortgage rates to fall back to historic lows before making a move, but that's not expected to happen," wrote Erika Giovanetti, a consumer lending analyst for the publication. "Optimistically, rates may drop into the low 6% range over the next few years, and that could lure some into the market. But there's not a good argument for waiting for more extreme rate relief, since the dynamics are already turning in favor of homebuyers in today's market."
In other words, both Khater and Giovanetti seem to think that waiting to make your move in the housing market could be a mistake, while acting now might be smart. That makes sense to us, too.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.73% | 6.76% | +0.05% | -0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.71% | 5.76% | +-0% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.02% | 7.22% | -0.14% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.12% | 6.26% | -0.08% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.06% | 6.2% | -0.36% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.95% | 6.97% | +0.2% | -0.11% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.81% | 6.85% | -0.28% | +0% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.78% | 6.81% | +0.05% | -0.07% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.7% | 5.75% | +0% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6% | 7.2% | -0.13% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.15% | 6.3% | -0.18% | -0.12% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.91% | 6.94% | -0.33% | +0% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. The most important is likely to be the preliminary reading of July's consumer sentiment index. That's expected to improve to 61.8 from 60.7 in June.
But, in a week where key inflation and retail sales reports have failed to have much impact, consumer sentiment might struggle to affect mortgage rates.
Ironically, data concerning the housing market rarely move those rates perceptibly. So, this morning's other two reports will probably be damp squibs, too.
They cover housing starts (expected to slightly improve to an annualized 1.30 million from May's 1.26 million) and building permits (expected to be unchanged since May at 1.39 million), both for June
Higher-than-expected numbers typically exert upward pressure on mortgage rates, while lower-than-expected ones tend to push them downward. On-forecast figures can leave those rates virtually unchanged. And relatively unimportant reports are often ignored.
