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Mortgage Rates Today, July 17, 2025: Retail Sales Data Out This Morning

Man inspects a home during a USDA home loan appraisal: Mortgage rates today

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.76% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.76%, up by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 6.05% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.96%, reflecting no change.

The bigger picture

Yesterday's produce price index showed prices in the wholesale and distribution parts of the supply chain holding steady in June, beating market expectations. And mortgage rates moved lower as a result.

But the drop was tiny. And that disappointingly small movement may be a result of a drama over the independence of the Federal Reserve that played out during the middle of the day.

That ended when the government said, "We’re not planning on doing anything" about firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. However, the possibility wasn't entirely ruled out because the statement ended, "Unless he has to leave for fraud."

Still, that was enough to quell market fears. Stocks, which had been falling steeply on speculation of an imminent firing, and bond yields that had been rising sharply largely recovered during the afternoon.

Today's retail sales report

Retail sales may not be as consequential for mortgage rates as jobs and inflation reports, but they still count for a lot. Retail spending isn't the same as consumer spending (or personal consumption expenditures), but the former is an important part of the latter.

In May, U.S. Bank wrote: "Consumer spending is the key driver of ongoing economic growth. Amid reports of flagging consumer sentiment and concerns about the potential inflationary impact of tariffs, markets are closely monitoring consumer spending as a key indicator of continued economic growth. On this point, consumers remain in a strong position to help keep the economy on track."

Indices of consumer sentiment and confidence have recovered in recent months, probably as a result of the 90-day pause in many tariffs. And markets are hoping to see retail sales bouncing back in June after a particularly bad May. Read on for figures.

Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days

Purchase Rates

Loan Type Rate APR Daily Change Monthly Change
30-Year Fixed 6.76% 6.79% +0% -0.05%
15-Year Fixed 5.76% 5.81% +0.03% -0.06%
30-Year Fixed FHA 6.05% 7.25% +0% -0.12%
30-Year Fixed VA 6.17% 6.32% +0.04% -0.16%
30-Year Fixed USDA 6.11% 6.26% +0% -0.12%
30-Year Fixed Jumbo 6.96% 6.98% +-0% -0.12%
5/6 Year ARM 6.93% 6.98% +0.11% +0.15%

Refinance Rates

Loan Type Rate APR Daily Change Monthly Change
30-Year Fixed 6.84% 6.87% +-0% -0.05%
15-Year Fixed 5.75% 5.8% +0.03% -0.06%
30-Year Fixed FHA 6.03% 7.23% +0.01% -0.11%
30-Year Fixed VA 6.21% 6.36% +0.03% -0.19%
5/6 Year ARM 7.04% 7.07% +0.11% +0.15%
How we source rates and rate trends.

Coming up

Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.

Mortgage rates today

There are several economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But by far the most important is June's retail sales data.

Markets expect those sales to increase by 0.2% that month after a 0.9% fall in May.

Other reports this morning are unlikely to affect mortgage rates unless they include truly shocking figures. Those include:

  • June import price index (IPI) — expected to rise by 0.3% having held steady in May
  • July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey — expected to fall by 1%, which is better than June's 4% drop
  • May business inventories — expected to hold steady, unchanged from April
  • July home builder confidence index — expected to inch up to 33 from June's 32
  • Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5 — expected to rise to 234,000 from the previous week's 227,000

Higher-than-expected numbers typically exert upward pressure on mortgage rates, while lower-than-expected ones tend to push them downward. On-forecast figures can leave those rates virtually unchanged, as happened today.

Jobless claims are an exception. For them, it's the higher the better for mortgage rates.

About The Author:

Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.

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