The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.76% today, unchanged since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.76%, up by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.05%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.96%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Yesterday's consumer price index (CPI) came in almost exactly as forecast, with only core figures a shade lower than expected. Mortgage rates barely moved on the news.Will the same happen today with the producer price index (PPI), which measures price changes earlier in the supply chain, specifically in the wholesale phase at factory gates and warehouses? We'll find out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Markets are especially sensitive to inflation data at the moment because they fear that tariffs will cause a spike in inflation.
Yesterday evening, MarketWatch said, "[Tariff] supporters are pointing to the stock market’s record highs and other encouraging economic indicators to argue that concerns about ... tariffs are overblown. Skeptics, however, say it’s too soon to declare that all’s well, especially given that higher levels of import taxes could be coming."
In an e-newsletter, Bill Adams, Comerica Bank's chief economist, seemed to agree. "The big picture is that the CPI continues to trend a bit above the Fed’s target," he wrote. "In year-over-year terms, the CPI has ranged from 2.3% to 3.0% since June 2024, and core CPI from 2.8% to 3.3%. Both currently sit around the middle of those ranges. ... While business surveys reported a big pickup in input cost inflation in the second quarter, CPI inflation was still relatively well behaved through June. ... This is not to say that the effects of tariffs are missing entirely from the CPI report. The clearest sign so far is a pickup in home furnishings inflation, the category that includes appliances, kitchenware, linens, furniture, and similar products."
Higher prices tend to show up in the PPI earlier than in the CPI. So, expect markets to pay close attention to today's figures.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.76% | 6.79% | +0% | -0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.76% | 5.81% | +0.03% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.05% | 7.25% | +0% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.17% | 6.32% | +0.04% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.11% | 6.26% | +0% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.96% | 6.98% | +-0% | -0.12% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.93% | 6.98% | +0.11% | +0.15% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.84% | 6.87% | +-0% | -0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.75% | 5.8% | +0.03% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.03% | 7.23% | +0.01% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.21% | 6.36% | +0.03% | -0.19% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.04% | 7.07% | +0.11% | +0.15% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
The most important report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar is the June producer price index (PPI).
Price indices are broken down into four headline numbers. Two cover price movements during the reporting month (June), and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) figures (July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025).
One for each period measures raw PPI, which covers all items in the survey. The other, called core PPI, measures the same, except it excludes food and energy prices. These are often so volatile that they disguise the underlying inflation trend.
Here is what markets are expecting for two of those four numbers today. Because PPIs are less important than CPIs, there are no forecasts for year-over-year readings.
- June PPI — Markets expect 0.2%, up from May's 0.1%
- June core PPI — Markets expect 0.2%, up from May's 0.1%
Higher-than-expected inflation numbers typically exert upward pressure on mortgage rates, while lower-than-expected ones tend to push them downward. On-forecast figures can leave those rates virtually unchanged, as happened today.
Also today, we're due industrial production data for June. That's expected to grow less quickly than in May: down to 0.1% from 0.2%.
Stand by for tomorrow's retail sales data for June. That's a key indicator of how the economy is holding up.
