The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.76% today, an increase of 0.04% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.73%, up by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.04%, having risen by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.97%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
The volatility we feared in yesterday's column didn't materialize that day. But there's plenty of reason to think we could be in for some movement today.
That's because we're due the consumer price index (CPI) for June at 8:30 a.m. Eastern this morning. And that is a crucial gauge of inflation (read on for forecasts).
Mortgage News Daily explains why this one is particularly important: "This CPI marks the first major opportunity for the official data to show
(or not show) a meaningful impact on inflation from tariffs. Because the Fed has acknowledged this and because the prospect of tariff-driven
inflation is the reason they're waiting to cut the Fed Funds Rate, things could get pretty spicy (in a good way) if CPI fails to show the expected uptick."
Of course, if this morning's figures are worse (higher) than expected, that could have the opposite effect, pushing mortgage rates upward.
Fed independence
Yesterday, we wrote about tariffs and threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve as potential triggers for volatility. But, so far, markets seem to have shrugged those off.
Later yesterday, Barron's underlined the potential effect on markets if the government tries to interfere in the Fed's business, perhaps by firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. "Assault on Powell Is a Bigger Market Threat Than Tariffs. Here’s Why," read the headline over one story.
"So, is there anything that can stop the stock rally reaching new highs?" Barron's asked. "Watch Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Tuesday’s inflation data are expected to show a 0.3% rise in prices, with economists watching for the first signs that tariffs are beginning to fuel price rises, therefore delaying interest-rate cuts. With Powell set to face questions from Trump’s advisers about the cost of renovating the Fed’s headquarters, tensions with the White House could reach breaking point," it continued.
Just because markets failed to react yesterday, doesn't mean that either the tariff or Fed issues have gone away. Watch this space.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.76% | 6.79% | +0.04% | +0% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.73% | 5.78% | +0.05% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.04% | 7.24% | +0.05% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.13% | 6.28% | +0.04% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.11% | 6.25% | +0.04% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.97% | 6.99% | +0.01% | -0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.83% | 6.87% | +0.01% | +0.11% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.84% | 6.87% | +0.06% | +0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.72% | 5.77% | +0.05% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.02% | 7.22% | +0.04% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.18% | 6.32% | +0.04% | -0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.92% | 6.95% | +0.01% | +0.12% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
One of the most crucial economic reports this month appears on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. It's the June consumer price index (CPI).
Markets are especially sensitive to each inflation report at the moment as they scan the horizon for signs of higher inflation triggered by tariffs. They're already expecting moderate increases across the board in this CPI (see below).
Price indices are broken down into four headline numbers. Two cover price movements during the reporting month (June), and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) figures (July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025).
One for each period measures raw CPI, which covers all items in the survey. The other measures the same, except it excludes food and energy prices. These are often so volatile that they disguise the underlying inflation trend.
Here is what markets are expecting for those four numbers today:
- June CPI — Markets expect 0.3%, up from May's 0.1%
- YOY CPI — Markets expect 2.7%, up from May's 2.4%
- June core CPI — Markets expect 0.3%, up from May's 0.1%
- YOY core CPI — Markets expect 3%, up from May's 2.8%
Higher-than-expected inflation numbers typically exert upward pressure on mortgage rates, while lower-than-expected ones tend to push them downward. On-forecast figures can leave those rates unchanged.
Although these are the figures you'll see most widely reported, Wall Street analysts will be digging deeper into the data to try to discern how much, if any, change can be attributed to tariffs. If they believe that tariffs have driven prices higher than the headline figures suggest, that could be bad for mortgage rates. But if they think the effect has been milder, those rates could fall.
Stand by for Thursday's retail sales data for June. That and the CPI have the potential to generate most of the action this week.
