The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.68% today, an increase of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.68%, up by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.94%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.95%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
"Looking forward, mortgage rates are expected to stay stubbornly high throughout the rest of 2025, with many economists calling for the average 30-year fixed loan rate to stay above 6.5%," wrote Erika Giovanetti, a consumer lending analyst with U.S. News yesterday.But Giovanetti offered some hope, too. "As homebuyers and sellers alike may be growing tired of waiting for lower mortgage rates, there are signs that the lock-in effect may be fading," she continued. "A year ago, 86% of mortgage holders had a rate below 6% — but the share of homeowners with a sub-6% rate has decreased to 81%, according to the most recent Federal Housing Finance Agency data. As more sellers decide to move, the share of those who are locked in by their current rates will shrink."
This lock-in effect has had a big effect on the housing market. With so many homeowners having existing mortgage rates much lower than the ones they'd have to pay now if they moved home, many have simply stayed put.
And that kept the inventory of homes for sale small, helping to push up prices. So, any increase in homeowners biting the bullet and moving despite the higher rates they'd pay today helps first-time buyers and generally loosens up the market.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.68% | 6.71% | +0.03% | -0.13% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.68% | 5.73% | +0.04% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.94% | 7.14% | +0% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.05% | 6.2% | +0.01% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.98% | 6.12% | +-0% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.95% | 6.97% | +0.01% | -0.19% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.72% | 6.75% | +0% | -0.22% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.77% | 6.8% | +0.03% | -0.12% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.67% | 5.72% | +0.03% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.92% | 7.12% | +0.01% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.1% | 6.25% | +0.01% | -0.19% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.81% | 6.85% | +0.01% | -0.18% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.
In its Comerica Economic Weekly, Comerica Bank's economics team reveals its expectations for today. "The federal budget balance likely swung from a deficit in May to a surplus in June, with tariffs boosting receipts," it says.
Mortgage rates today
The sole economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar is the federal budget for June. Although Comerica thinks this could swing into surplus, markets are still expecting a deficit, albeit a much smaller one than a month earlier. Analysts predict a $20.5 billion shortfall between government revenues and spending, way down from May's $66 billion.
Don't expect much reaction in markets to this relatively uninfluential report. It's been much the same story for all this week's reports.
So, this week has been a generally dull one for economic reports. But next week could be much more lively, though none is scheduled for Monday.
Stand by for Tuesday's consumer price index (CPI) and Thursday's retail sales data, both for June. The CPI sometimes rivals the jobs report as the figures most likely to affect mortgage rates in any given month.
