The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.66% today, a decrease of 0.04% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.63%, down by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.94%, having dropped by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.94%, reflecting a decrease of 0.08%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday was a good one for mortgage rates. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes fell modestly, according to Barron's, following a successful auction of $39 billion worth of those notes. And mortgage rates, which typically shadow those yields, followed suit.
Meanwhile, the minutes of the June 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Federal Reserve's rate-setting body, contained nothing unexpected. "Participants acknowledged that risks and uncertainty about the economy are pervasive and pose challenges to both the design and communication of monetary policy", the minutes said." They remarked that measuring and assessing risks and uncertainty are difficult and that the Committee has been well served by relying on a wide range of indicators, as well as information from business and community contacts, to gauge evolving risks, especially during periods of heightened uncertainty."
In other words, it's wait-and-see business-as-usual at the Fed. Move along; nothing to see here.
It's rare for either of the two remaining economic reports this week to move mortgage rates. So, any changes today and tomorrow are likely to come from tariff announcements (although they seem to be losing their ability to shock, as discussed yesterday) or something new and wholly unexpected.
Next week might be different because it brings the consumer price index (Tuesday) and retail sales (Thursday), both of which are potentially important.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.66% | 6.68% | -0.04% | -0.21% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.63% | 5.68% | -0.04% | -0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.94% | 7.14% | -0.03% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.04% | 6.19% | -0.04% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.98% | 6.12% | -0.06% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.94% | 6.96% | -0.08% | -0.3% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.71% | 6.75% | -0.03% | -0.21% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.74% | 6.77% | -0.01% | -0.18% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.64% | 5.68% | -0.05% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.91% | 7.12% | -0.03% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.09% | 6.24% | -0.05% | -0.27% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.8% | 6.83% | -0.08% | -0.22% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.
In its Comerica Economic Weekly, Comerica Bank's economics team reveals its expectations for today and tomorrow:
"The federal budget balance likely swung from a deficit in May to a surplus in June, with tariffs boosting receipts. Continued unemployment insurance claims likely moved higher in late June as workers losing jobs took longer to find new employment amid anemic hiring."
Mortgage rates today
Once again, there's just one economic report that appears on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. It will show initial claims for unemployment benefits during the week ending July 5. They're expected to barely move, inching up to 235,000 from the previous week's 233,000.
Don't expect much reaction in markets to this relatively uninfluential report. Indeed, we shouldn't be surprised if all this week's reports fail to attract enough attention to perceptibly affect mortgage rates.
There's another Treasury auction today, this time for 30-year bonds. Yesterday's auction bodes well, but there's always a chance of disappointing demand (mortgage rates likely to rise) or a surplus of buyers (those rates might fall further).
