Mortgage Rates Today, Apr. 16, 2025: Low Rates Look More Distant Than Ever
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.86% today, a decrease of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.94%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.23%, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.41%, reflecting a decrease of 0.06%.
The bigger picture
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) published its latest forecast of mortgage rates on Monday. And it was worse than March's predictions.
It now expects the rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) to average 7.0% in the current quarter, falling gradually to 6.7% in the last quarter of 2025. It thinks that average will be 6.4% through both 2026 and 2027.
That's deeply disappointing for anyone planning to hold out for lower rates before buying their next or first home. If home prices were to continue to rise at their current rate, such buyers could find themselves struggling to afford a home even if rates dip in 2028. It may be better to consider purchasing now, even if that means settling for a more modest home or living for a while within a restricted household budget.
Uncertainty
Yesterday, we made the point that the current high levels of uncertainty affect mortgage rates as well as other markets and the economy. And we're sure that members of the MBA's economic team would readily acknowledge that their forecast is even more speculative than normal.A huge amount depends on how the trade war and government debt levels play out over the coming months. And how the Federal Reserve responds to those changes will also play a part in determining how mortgage rates move.
The sheer scale of the known and unknown unknowns we — and everyone else — face may mean that the smart move is to do nothing until some measure of certainty returns.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.86% | 6.89% | -0.01% | +0.15% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.94% | 5.99% | -0.02% | +0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.23% | 7.43% | -0.02% | +0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.35% | 6.5% | -0.01% | +0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.34% | 6.49% | +-0% | +0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.41% | 7.43% | -0.06% | +0.29% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.84% | 6.89% | -0.04% | +0.05% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.94% | 6.97% | +-0% | +0.12% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.94% | 5.99% | -0.02% | +0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.24% | 7.43% | -0.01% | +0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.43% | 6.58% | -0.03% | +0.35% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.97% | 7.02% | -0.03% | +0.05% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently, especially over tariffs.
Here's Comerica Bank's chief economist's view of what this week might bring:
"Retail sales likely rebounded in March after a poor start to 2025. Auto sales jumped in the month as consumers rushed to get new vehicles before tariffs pushed prices higher. Sales in other categories likely grew slower than autos but at a still solid rate. A strong March retail report will provide little comfort about the outlook into the rest of the year, since consumers were obviously pulling forward spending plans.
"Other economic reports will likely be weaker. Headwinds from tariffs, affordability, and fears of an economic slowdown likely weighed on homebuilding last month, and homebuilder sentiment is likely lower in April, too. Industrial production probably fell as unseasonably warm weather cut into utilities output. Manufacturing was probably little changed, while mining likely rose. Consumer inflation expectations in the New York Fed’s monthly survey likely jumped higher in March, echoing the higher inflation expectations reported by other recent consumer surveys."
Mortgage rates today
The week's star economic report is March's retail sales, due at 8:30 a.m. (EST) this morning. According to the MarketWatch economic calendar, markets expect retail sales excluding autos to come in at 0.3%, unchanged since February.
However, add in consumer vehicle sales, and the outlook is a more impressive 1.2% increase, way up from 0.2% in February. Still, don't forget that Comerica Bank warning: the bump in auto sales is likely a result of people panic buying ahead of tariff-induced price rises.
Also today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to give a speech at 1:30 p.m. Eastern. As always, Powell's words have the power to affect mortgage rates, occasionally significantly.
Other reports due today include March industrial production and capacity utilization, both of which are expected to have fallen appreciably, according to the MarketWatch economic calendar.
Tomorrow and later in the week
Tomorrow's reports rarely affect mortgage rates unless they contain shocking data.
Bond markets close early at 2 p.m. (EST) on Thursday and remain closed on Good Friday.
