Families dream of buying a home by November for one reason: to be moved in time for an iconic turkey dinner on Thanksgiving.
But this year, homebuyers won’t get as good a deal on one part of the equation: homes prices have not dropped as sharply as the cost of a Thanksgiving meal.
The cost of a turkey dinner for 10 with all the fixings, says the Farm Bureau, has dropped 9% since 2022, from roughly $64 that year to $58 in 2024.
Home prices, however, have only come down 5% during the same period. After hitting a 2022 high of $442,600, the median-priced home has dropped to $420,400 this year according to the Census Bureau and HUD.
Imagine A World Where Homes Were More Like Turkeys
What if home prices had fallen as quickly as turkey dinners? It could be a very different housing market.
A 9% drop from 2022 levels would mean today’s home prices would be closer to $400,000, levels not seen since the third quarter of 2021. But demand isn't waning like that for turkeys.
The Farm Bureau reports that there has been a decrease in turkey demand to the tune of one pound per person in the U.S. since last year.
If homes were more like turkeys, lower demand would result in a rough $20,000 discount from today’s levels. That would reduce someone’s monthly payment by about $110 per month at current interest rates.
Actual 5% Drop Since 2022 | Hypothetical Turkey-Like 9% Drop Since 2022 | |
|---|---|---|
2022 Home Price | $442,600 | $442,600 |
2024 Home Price | $420,400 | $402,000 |
P&I Payment* | $2,517 | $2,407 |
*10% Down, 7% 30-year fixed mortgage. Example purposes only.
