The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.16% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.25%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.5% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.56%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
One of the reasons mortgage rates have been relatively stable recently has been the government shutdown's creation of a total absence of official data. That changes tomorrow with the publication of September's consumer price index (CPI).
This isn't appearing as a favor to Wall Street. A 1973 law imposes a statutory duty on the government to use a version of the CPI, based on third-quarter prices, to determine annual cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits, says the Social Security Administration.
So, the government has no choice but to publish tomorrow's CPI report because September is part of the third quarter. No other official reports are likely to appear before the government re-opens.
There's a chance that tomorrow's data will be even more influential than usual, despite the CPI already being the second-most (sometimes most) important monthly report.
Think of how people who have been lost in a desert will consume their first bottle of water in a long time. Investors may feel that way after the three-week drought of official data.
Today, we're due only one report, September's existing home sales. That's published by the National Association of Realtors®, so it is unaffected by the shutdown.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.16% | 6.19% | +-0% | -0.16% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.25% | 5.29% | -0.01% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.5% | 6.72% | +-0% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.62% | 5.76% | -0.01% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.52% | 5.66% | +0% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.56% | 6.58% | -0.01% | -0.16% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.15% | 6.18% | +0.01% | -0.22% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.28% | 6.3% | +0% | -0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.24% | 5.28% | -0.01% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.46% | 6.68% | +-0% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.65% | 5.79% | +-0% | -0.1% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.22% | 6.25% | +0% | -0.16% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
The shutdown means almost no official economic data will be published until the government reopens. So far, there is only one exception. The September consumer price index is scheduled for release this Friday.
Here is Comerica Bank's take on what to expect from economic reports this week:
"The September inflation report will probably show a sharp monthly increase in headline consumer prices and a moderate rise in core prices,
resulting in annual changes for both measures holding above 3%. Big jumps in beef and electricity prices are expected to have contributed to
the higher inflation print. S&P Global’s Flash PMIs [purchasing managers' indices] will likely show a further moderation in economic activity in both manufacturing and services sectors. Boosted by lower mortgage rates, existing home sales probably rose last month. Weighed down by the government shutdown, consumer sentiment likely eased in October, while households’ year-ahead and long-term inflation expectations are anticipated to have held steady."
Mortgage rates today
Only one economic report appears on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. That's September data on existing home sales.
This report rarely affects mortgage rates. But, for completeness, markets expect these sales to tick up that month to 4.06 million from August's 4.0 million.
Higher-than-expected figures tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones usually drag them downward. But don't expect fireworks today unless some other economic news emerges.
