The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.29% yesterday, a decrease of 0.04% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.42%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.58% yesterday, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.72%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
On Wednesday, we listed a number of alternative sources of employment data. Yesterday, one of those, Revelio Labs, released a report that suggested the number of jobs in America dipped in October by 9,100. Another source, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, released figures that showed layoffs running at their fastest pace since 2003. Together, these were sufficient to persuade markets that the labor market is in trouble.
"A
near-blackout of official economic data caused by the ongoing U.S.
government shutdown has sent investors searching for private offerings
that might provide some clues about what is happening in the labor
market," reported MarketWatch yesterday.
"On
Thursday, investors found something to latch on to — and many
apparently didn’t like what they saw," continued MarketWatch's article. "The latest report from Challenger,
Gray & Christmas, a firm that publishes a monthly update on hiring
and firing activity, showed U.S.-based employers announced 153,074 job
cuts in October, up 175% from the same month a year ago, and up 183%
from those announced in September. That was the highest total seen in
October in 20 years, and the highest for any month since 2008."
MarketWatch may have misread or mistranscribed that year, because Challenger's own website says 2003.
Regular readers will know that mortgage rates tend to fall on bad economic news. And, sure enough, they moved lower yesterday.
Today's data
This morning, we're due November's preliminary consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan. With roughly 70% of U.S. economic activity reliant on consumer expenditures, this can be an influential report.
Whether or not today's is will depend on what it says. Scroll down for market expectations.
Where mortgage rates are within the bigger picture
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.29% | 6.32% | -0.04% | -0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.42% | 5.47% | -0.02% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.58% | 6.79% | -0.02% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.65% | 5.79% | -0.05% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.56% | 5.7% | -0.07% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.72% | 6.73% | +-0% | +0% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.32% | 6.36% | -0.01% | -0.09% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.39% | 6.41% | -0.02% | -0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.4% | 5.44% | -0.02% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.55% | 6.76% | -0.01% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.68% | 5.81% | -0.04% | -0.15% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.41% | 6.44% | +0.02% | +-0% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
The shutdown means almost no official economic data will be published until the government reopens. So far, there has been only one exception: For legal reasons, the delayed September consumer price index was published on Oct. 24.
Nothing else is expected to be released by the government before the shutdown ends. But data compiled by non-governmental sources should be published as normal.
Here's Comerica Bank's preview of this week's economic data:
"Payroll processing company ADP is likely to report private employment rebounded modestly in October after a decline in the prior month. The government’s jobs report would probably have shown a decline due to lower federal government employment, but is delayed by the shutdown. The ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs probably fell in October amid headwinds from ongoing trade disputes and the government shutdown. Vehicle sales likely fell, too, after EV tax credits expired on Sep 30th. Consumer credit is expected to have risen in September after
holding steady in the prior month. Consumer sentiment and households’ year-ahead and long-term inflation expectations are forecast to hold
steady in their early November releases."
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. The consumer sentiment index (see above) is the one more likely to affect mortgage rates.
Markets expect this to edge lower to 53.0 from its last reading of 53.6. For mortgage rates, the lower this morning's figure is, the better.
Today's second report is consumer credit in September, and is due to be published this afternoon by the Federal Reserve. Normally, this passes by most investors unnoticed. But, amid the current shortage of data, it's just possible that today's will attract attention.
Markets are expecting a sharp rise in consumer borrowing that month of $10 billion, up from $0.4 million in August, which was exceptionally low. This is one of those rare reports where higher-than-expected figures can be good for mortgage rates.
Next week, we're due only two economic reports over the entire week — unless the government reopens before next Friday.
