The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.31% yesterday, an increase of 0.03% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.43%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.64% yesterday, having risen by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.74%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates nudged a little higher yesterday, wiping out last Friday's fall. Nothing unusual about that, except we're scratching our heads about why.
We can usually spot the driver behind changes and tell you about it. But not for Monday.
It's unlikely to have been yesterday's two economic reports, both of which were October purchasing managers' indices for the manufacturing sector. The more influential one, from the Institute for Supply Management, came in a little worse than expected, which you would normally expect to exert downward pressure on mortgage rates.
It probably wasn't a continuing reaction to last Wednesday's warning from the Federal Reserve that a cut to general interest rates next month was far from a foregone conclusion. Indeed, the CME FedWatch tool suggests investors are over that, with the odds of a cut on December 10 improving.
And there were no big developments concerning tariffs or the government shutdown to account for mortgage rates' movement.
True, the U.S. Treasury announced its borrowing estimates for the current quarter. But that was $21 billion lower than had been announced in July 2025. And, again, that would normally help mortgage rates fall.
So, we're at a loss and can only suggest an unsatisfactory explanation: Occasionally, markets move for no apparent reason.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.31% | 6.34% | +0.03% | +0% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.43% | 5.48% | +0.02% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.64% | 6.85% | +0.05% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.7% | 5.84% | -0.01% | +-0% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.75% | 5.89% | +0.12% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.74% | 6.76% | -0.01% | +0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.34% | 6.38% | -0.02% | +0.02% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.37% | 6.39% | +0.02% | -0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.4% | 5.45% | +0.04% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.6% | 6.81% | +0.05% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.74% | 5.88% | -0.03% | +0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.35% | 6.38% | -0.09% | -0.02% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
The shutdown means almost no official economic data will be published until the government reopens. So far, there has been only one exception: For legal reasons, the delayed September consumer price index was published on Oct. 24.
Nothing else is expected to be released before the shutdown ends. But data compiled by non-governmental sources should be published as normal.
Here's Comerica Bank's preview of this week's economic data:
"Payroll processing company ADP is likely to report private employment rebounded modestly in October after a decline in the prior month. The government’s jobs report would probably have shown a decline due to lower federal government employment, but is delayed by the shutdown. The ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs probably fell in October amid headwinds from ongoing trade disputes and the government shutdown. Vehicle sales likely fell, too, after EV tax credits expired on Sep 30th. Consumer credit is expected to have risen in September after
holding steady in the prior month. Consumer sentiment and households’ year-ahead and long-term inflation expectations are forecast to hold
steady in their early November releases."
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar.
We're due three reports tomorrow and two on Friday. But, unless the government reopens this week, that's it.
