The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.93% today, an increase of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.93%, up by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.21%, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.54%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates fell modestly yesterday. The financial press have three possible explanations for the drop:
- Investors were delighted by the weekend announcement that tariffs on imports from the EU won't rise as quickly as suggested last Friday. Some take it as a sign that the U.S. will take a softer line on tariffs generally, according to Barron's.
- Yesterday's consumer sentiment index was generally good. However, it included a powerful negative that might have helped mortgage rates. Consumers' "appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month," says the Conference Board, the report's publisher.
- "A global bond-market rally, sparked by signs that Japan might adjust its long-dated issuance, sent the 30-year Treasury yield down by the most in almost two months on Tuesday," says MarketWatch. Mortgage rates tend to shadow 10-year Treasury notes, but those, too, fell.
It may well have been a combination of all three of those that sent mortgage rates lower. Let's hope the current mood continues.
Watch out for the Fed this afternoon
At 2 p.m. Eastern, we're due a report from the Federal Reserve. It's the minutes of the May meeting of the Fed's rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
These minutes sometimes reveal more about a meeting's discussions than was previously known. So markets study them in detail, and occasionally react if they contain sensitive information.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.93% | 6.96% | +0.03% | +0.16% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.93% | 5.98% | +0.03% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.21% | 7.41% | -0.02% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.33% | 6.48% | -0.03% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.2% | 6.34% | -0.01% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.54% | 7.56% | -0.01% | +0.35% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.89% | 6.94% | -0.01% | +0.15% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.98% | 7.01% | +0.03% | +0.12% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.91% | 5.96% | +0.02% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.19% | 7.39% | -0.02% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.37% | 6.52% | -0.04% | +0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7% | 7.03% | +0% | +0.13% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Here's what Comerica Bank's economic team is expecting from this week's data:
"No material revisions are expected for either real GDP or the GDP Price Index when the second estimate for the first quarter of 2025 is published. Growth of both personal income and spending likely moderated in April after robust increases in the prior month. The headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) price indices probably eased in April, as businesses held back on passing higher costs to consumers. Cooler PCE inflation will be a welcome development, but seems unlikely to convince the Fed to cut interest rates near-term since last week’s survey releases showed that inflationary pressures are mounting rapidly. The goods trade deficit likely pulled back in April but was still larger than any month before 2025 as importers’ stockpiling of imports slowed.
"On the housing front, pending home sales likely fell in April. A housing market moving closer to balance should translate to flat-to-modest monthly increases in house price indexes in March, further easing annual house price inflation. The University of Michigan’s final survey of consumers for May probably will improve, with a better outlook and lower inflation expectations after the partial rollback of tariffs on Chinese imports agreed on May 12 (The “90-day pause”). Durable goods orders likely fell in April after a sharp increase in the prior month. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—a widely-watched proxy for business spending on equipment—also likely fell as businesses waited for greater clarity on the economic outlook and took a wait-and-see approach to business investment."
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. However, watch out for those FOMC minutes.
Tomorrow, we're due the second reading of gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of this year. On Tuesday, MarketWatch showed markets expecting this to be unrevised at -0.3%. However, that was updated yesterday, and the new expectation is for a slightly worse reading of -0.4%.
Tomorrow should also bring April's pending home sales. These are expected to tumble to a -1.0% contraction following March's 6.1% rise.
Typically, a lower-than-expected figure exerts downward pressure on mortgage rates, while a higher-than-expected one exerts upward pressure. However, markets have been shrugging off most economic data as they focus on tariffs and deficits, so today's report may have zero impact.
This week's most influential report lands on Friday and is April's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. It's the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation. Markets expect it to contain a mixture of slightly good and slightly bad data.
We'll brief you more fully on both the GDP and PCE reports before they're published. But remember: There's no guarantee bond markets will pay any attention to any of them.
