The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.71% today, a decrease of 0.02% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.67%, down by 0.07%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.07%, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.06%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday's gross domestic product (GDP) data were considerably worse than markets were expecting. And the ADP employment report dealt another blow to optimists.
Normally, you'd expect that to pull mortgage rates appreciably lower. But they barely budged that day.
And it's not entirely clear why. Markets seem to be shrugging off the bad economic news that's piling up.
True, yesterday's inflation report contained good news, though very closely in line with expectations. However, it's unusual for investors to offset unexpectedly bad news with good numbers that were anticipated all along. Perhaps they're hoping for trade deals to be unveiled soon and are counting their chickens before they're hatched.
All eyes now turn to tomorrow's jobs report, formally called the employment situation report, for April. That's typically the most consequential economic report in any given month. And it just might grab investors by the throat and force them to pay attention.
To do so in a way that lowers mortgage rates significantly, it would need to deliver some unexpectedly terrible figures. And that's a real possibility.
As we discussed yesterday, some economists believe there's a risk that the number of jobs created in April will be lower than the 133,000 expected by markets, which itself is much lower than March's 228,000. And there's an outside chance of tomorrow's report showing a negative figure for job creation.
It's hard to see how investors could ignore such a shockingly bad outcome. But they shrugged off yesterday's horrible GDP figures, so who knows?
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.71% | 6.75% | -0.02% | +0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.67% | 5.72% | -0.07% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.07% | 7.27% | -0.02% | +0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.19% | 6.34% | -0.02% | +0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.22% | 6.36% | +-0% | +0.29% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.06% | 7.08% | -0.03% | +0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.6% | 6.63% | -0.06% | +-0% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.8% | 6.82% | -0.03% | +0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.66% | 5.7% | -0.07% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.06% | 7.26% | -0.02% | +0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.25% | 6.4% | -0.03% | +0.2% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.66% | 6.69% | -0.06% | -0.05% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently.
Here's Comerica Bank's take on what to expect from economic reports during the rest of this week:
" ... The labor market probably softened in April, with a lackluster increase in employment and an uptick of the unemployment rate. ... The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to show the sector in contraction for the second consecutive month. ... Vehicle sales are anticipated to take a breather in April after March’s jump to the highest sales in four years."
Mortgage rates today
We're due three potentially significant economic reports today, according to the MarketWatch economic calendar. But if markets and mortgage rates were unmoved by yesterday's much more important data, it's hard to see today's figures having much impact.
Today's reports comprise:
- March construction spending — Markets expect growth to slow to 0.2% compared with February's 0.7%
- April purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) — Markets expect a fall to 47.8% from March's 49.0%
- April purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector from S&P Global — Markets expect this to inch lower to 50.6 from March's 50.7
As usual, lower-than-expected numbers tend to be good for mortgage rates.
We'll publish tomorrow's daily column later than usual, so we can bring you the jobs report's actual figures. Expect us to post at around 9 a.m. (EST).
