Mortgage Rates Today, June 26, 2026: Consumer Sentiment Data Due This Morning

The bigger picture

Mortgage rates again fell moderately yesterday. However, Freddie Mac reckons that this week's Thursday-to-Thursday average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage inched higher.

"A United Nations agency paused the evacuation of ships through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday after the British military said a vessel was hit by a projectile off the coast of Oman following the passage of several tankers that used a route backed by the U.N.," reported ABC News yesterday afternoon. If this slows the passage of oil through the Strait or raises tensions in the region, we might see upward pressure on mortgage rates today.

Absent drama in the Middle East, this morning's main economic report just might affect mortgage rates. It's the final consumer sentiment index for June.

Scroll on down for details of today's economic reports and how they might affect mortgage rates.

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What's coming up?

Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.

The Fed

April's price indices (the CPI, PPI, IPI and PCE) tend to lend weight to pessimistic arguments about future inflation rates.

May's consumer price index and producer price index, published on Jun. 10 and 11, respectively, were even worse than April's. Meanwhile, May's import price index, released Jun. 16, came in worse than markets were expecting. May's PCE price index is due today.

Those reports landed well after the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee. Minutes of that meeting were published on May 20 and included the following:

"Almost all participants noted that there was a risk that the conflict in the Middle East could persist for an extended period or that, even after the conflict ended, the prices of oil and other commodities could remain elevated for longer than expected. In such scenarios, these participants expected continued upward pressure on inflation arising from supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, or the pass-through of higher input costs to other prices. The vast majority of participants noted an increased risk that inflation would take longer to return to the Committee’s 2 percent objective than they had previously expected."

Bottom line: "A majority of participants highlighted ... that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2 percent." Policy firming is Fedspeak for a rate hike.

We should get the minutes of the Jun. 17 meeting roughly three weeks from that date. But events surrounding that showed committee members all but ruling out a further cut to general interest rates this year. And almost half of them now expect a hike in 2026.

Bond markets vs. stock markets

Mortgage rates are largely dictated by yields on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS). So, we focus on bond markets.

On May 7, The New York Times explored why stock markets and bond markets have been behaving so differently from each other since the start of the conflict in the Middle East.

Investors in stocks have been wagering that U.S. companies will continue to generate large profits during the conflict. And the stock market typically cares only about whether dividends and company values will continue to rise.

"But the bond market is another matter," said The Times. "Bond traders have maintained a much sharper focus on risk. Yields remain correlated with shifts in the price of oil. As oil prices have spiked and inflation has risen, yields have risen and bond prices, which move in the opposite direction, have fallen."

Comerica Bank's weekly preview

On Monday, Comerica Bank published its weekly preview:

"The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is forecast to rise to the highest in three years in the May release, reflecting the same spike in energy prices that pushed up the CPI and PPI during the month. Energy prices fell in the first half of June, which should lower PCE inflation considerably in the next report.

"Real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 is forecast to be revised down slightly in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s third estimate, incorporating recent data that pointed to softer consumer spending on services and business fixed investment in equipment."

Comerica also said it expected consumer sentiment to improve this month, reflecting a more cheerful mood as gas prices have fallen back this month.

Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are based on a consensus of a wider pool of analysts' forecasts.

Mortgage rates today

There is only one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar that stands a good chance of affecting mortgage rates. And it's the University of Michigan's final reading of the consumer sentiment index in June.

What's next?

Nothing is scheduled for next Monday or Friday. But the three-day week mostly features employment data. By far the most important event is the jobs report for June, which is due on Thursday. Next Saturday is, of course, Independence Day.