The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.44% yesterday, a decrease of 0.01% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.62%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.84% yesterday, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.59%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates only inched lower yesterday. The wind seems to have gone out of the sails of those swept along by optimism about the still-secret memorandum of understanding agreed with Iran on Sunday.
Assuming there's no sensational news about that, mortgage rates may be affected by the Federal Reserve's publications, due at 2 p.m. Eastern. The CME FedWatch tool puts the chances of the Fed leaving rates unchanged today at 99.5%, so — barring shocks — the rate announcement itself is unlikely to affect markets or mortgage rates. The Fed only indirectly influences mortgage rates.
However, the Fed is scheduled to release its latest summary of economic projections, also at 2 p.m., which includes the famous "dot plot." And the latter certainly can move mortgage rates.
Thirty minutes later, we're due a news conference hosted by the Fed chair. This is Kevin Warsh’s debut in that post, and journalists are highly likely to question him closely about changes he hopes to make. Again, vague or unwelcome answers could affect mortgage rates. More below.
Scroll on down for details of today's economic reports — including retail sales data for May — and how they might affect mortgage rates.
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.44% | 6.47% | -0.01% | -0.18% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.62% | 5.69% | -0.01% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.84% | 7.05% | -0.02% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.98% | 6.14% | -0.03% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.88% | 6.04% | -0.06% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.59% | 6.6% | +0.01% | -0.21% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.09% | 6.15% | -0.1% | -0.11% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.51% | 6.54% | -0.01% | -0.16% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.61% | 5.67% | -0.02% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.84% | 7.05% | -0.02% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.99% | 6.14% | -0.03% | -0.1% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.05% | 6.1% | -0.02% | -0.34% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
The Fed
April's price indices (the CPI, PPI, IPI and PCE) tend to lend weight to pessimistic arguments about future inflation rates. May's consumer price index and producer price index, published on Jun. 10 and 11, respectively, were even worse than April's. Meanwhile, May's import price index, released Jun. 16, came in worse than markets were expecting.
Those reports landed well after the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee. Minutes of that meeting were published on May 20 and included the following:
"Almost all participants noted that there was a risk that the conflict in the Middle East could persist for an extended period or that, even after the conflict ended, the prices of oil and other commodities could remain elevated for longer than expected. In such scenarios, these participants expected continued upward pressure on inflation arising from supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, or the pass-through of higher input costs to other prices. The vast majority of participants noted an increased risk that inflation would take longer to return to the Committee’s 2 percent objective than they had previously expected."
Bottom line: "A majority of participants highlighted ... that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2 percent." Policy firming is Fedspeak for a rate hike.
The current meeting of the Fed's rate-setting body is concluding today.
Bond markets vs. stock markets
Mortgage rates are largely dictated by yields on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS). So, we focus on bond markets.
On May 7, The New York Times explored why stock markets and bond markets have been behaving so differently from each other since the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Investors in stocks have been wagering that U.S. companies will continue to generate large profits during the conflict. And the stock market typically cares only about whether dividends and company values will continue to rise.
"But the bond market is another matter," said The Times. "Bond traders have maintained a much sharper focus on risk. Yields remain correlated with shifts in the price of oil. As oil prices have spiked and inflation has risen, yields have risen and bond prices, which move in the opposite direction, have fallen."
Comerica Bank's weekly preview
On Monday, Comerica Bank published its weekly preview:
"The Federal Reserve is expected to hold the federal funds target steady at a range of 3.50% to 3.75% at their June 17 decision, incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s first. Their policy statement will welcome the pickup in job growth so far this year — Payrolls averaged a gain of over 100,000 per month through May, up from 10,000 per month in 2025. The statement also will acknowledge that inflation has risen further from their 2% target due to energy prices. On core inflation, they will likely be encouraged by cool core goods prices in recent reports, but concerned by the pickup of services price inflation excluding housing. In the June Dot Plot, the median forecast for inflation at year-end will likely rise, while the unemployment rate estimate should edge lower. On rates, a few more Dots on the Plot are likely to indicate members see a hike as likelier than a cut by the end of 2027. Even so, the June meeting’s core message will likely be that the Fed expects to hold rates steady at the next few decisions.
"The first activity indicators for May are expected to be mixed. Industrial production likely rose solidly on higher manufacturing and mining output. Retail sales growth is expected to be moderate, with higher spending on new cars and gasoline but cool growth in other categories. Housing data are likely to be mixed. Starts and building permits are expected to hold on trend and point to subdued building this summer. Homebuilder sentiment is expected to improve, though, good news for the outlook. The pending home sales index should point to further modest gains for existing home sales ahead, too."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are based on a consensus of a wider pool of analysts' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. May's retail sales figures are by far the most likely to affect mortgage rates.
Here are what markets are expecting from each of this morning's three reports:
- May retail sales — Markets expect these to grow by 0.5%, unchanged since April
- April manufacturing & trade: inventories & sales — Markets expect the monthly data on total business activities of retail trade, wholesale trade and manufacturers to hold steady at 0.5%
- May pending home sales — Markets expect these to slow to 1% growth, compared with April's 1.4%
Typically, worse-than-expected numbers in a report are better for mortgage rates, while better-than-expected ones tend to push those rates higher, all other things being equal. When numbers come in as expected, mortgage rates rarely move far.
What's next?
Tomorrow's economic reports rarely have a perceptible effect on mortgage rates, and no such reports are scheduled for Friday.
We've been promised a signing ceremony in Switzerland for the Iran deal on Friday, and some expect the contents of the agreement to be made public that day. If the deal is signed on schedule and its terms are perceived as good for the United States, mortgage rates might fall. Otherwise, they might rise.
