Mortgage Rates Today, June 9, 2026: Tomorrow's Inflation Report Might Influence Rates Today

The bigger picture

We feared that events in the Middle East might send mortgage rates appreciably higher yesterday. But better war news that morning saw those rates only inch upward by the time the market closed.

Of course, the ceasefire remains fragile, and we could see good or bad news about the conflict at any time. But, absent that today, markets will likely focus on tomorrow's inflation report, the May consumer price index (CPI).

Markets are expecting consumer prices to have risen 4.2% year over year in May, more than twice the Federal Reserve's target of 2% annually. That's a three-year high for the CPI, and something likely to greatly concern the market, whose supply-and-demand dynamics determine mortgage rates.

Investors may well be jockeying for position today in advance of tomorrow's inflation figures. So, we shouldn't be surprised to see some volatility in mortgage rates.

Scroll on down for details of today's economic reports and how they might affect mortgage rates.

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What's coming up?

Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.

The Fed

April's price indices (the CPI, PPI, IPI and PCE) tend to lend weight to pessimistic arguments about future inflation rates. The first of the May inflation reports is due tomorrow.

Those reports landed well after the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee. Minutes of that meeting were published on May 20 and included the following:

"Almost all participants noted that there was a risk that the conflict in the Middle East could persist for an extended period or that, even after the conflict ended, the prices of oil and other commodities could remain elevated for longer than expected. In such scenarios, these participants expected continued upward pressure on inflation arising from supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, or the pass-through of higher input costs to other prices. The vast majority of participants noted an increased risk that inflation would take longer to return to the Committee’s 2 percent objective than they had previously expected."

Bottom line: "A majority of participants highlighted ... that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2 percent." Policy firming is Fedspeak for a rate hike.

Bond markets vs. stock markets

Mortgage rates are largely dictated by yields on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS). So, we focus on bond markets.

On May 7, The New York Times explored why stock markets and bond markets have been behaving so differently from each other since the start of the conflict in the Middle East.

Investors in stocks have been wagering that U.S. companies will continue to generate large profits during the conflict. And the stock market typically cares only about whether dividends and company values will continue to rise.

"But the bond market is another matter," said The Times. "Bond traders have maintained a much sharper focus on risk. Yields remain correlated with shifts in the price of oil. As oil prices have spiked and inflation has risen, yields have risen and bond prices, which move in the opposite direction, have fallen."

Comerica Bank's weekly preview

On Monday, Comerica Bank published its weekly preview:

"Headline CPI is expected to top 4% year-over-year in the May release, reaching a three-year high on last month’s rise in gasoline prices. Core CPI should run cooler, near 3% year-over-year. Prices rose faster than average hourly earnings in May, eroding consumers’ purchasing power. The PPI likewise registered another outsize increase and outpaced the CPI, reflecting the larger shares of petroleum products, metals, and shipping costs in the producer price basket.

"Consumer inflation expectations are likely to tick higher in the New York Fed’s May survey, weighing on views of the economy and job market. But the University of Michigan’s more timely read on consumer sentiment for early June will likely edge up from May’s record low, helped by lower gasoline prices over the last two weeks and higher stock prices."

Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are a consensus of a wider pool of analysts' forecasts.

Mortgage rates today

There are three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. While some are interesting, we doubt any will affect mortgage rates perceptibly today.

Here are this morning's three, together with market expectations for them:

• May index of small business optimism from the National Federation of Independent Business — Markets expect an index reading of 96.2, slightly up on April's 95.9
• April wholesale trade — Markets expect that trade to have grown by 0.5%, more slowly than March's 1.3%
• May existing home sales — Markets expect existing homes to have sold at an annualized rate of 4.0 million units, unchanged since April

Strap in for May's consumer price index (CPI), due tomorrow. It sometimes rivals the jobs report's influence, especially at times like this when inflation is such a hot topic. Its baby brother, the producer price index (PPI), is scheduled for Thursday.

Besides those, the ever-changing likelihood of peace in the Middle East is likely to cause most movements in mortgage rates this week.