The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.51% yesterday, a decrease of 0.02% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.66%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.87% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.77%, reflecting an increase of 0.05%.
The bigger picture
Over the last three months, we've repeated ad nauseam that markets and mortgage rates have been mostly driven by the conflict and peace talks in the Middle East. And that remains the case.
Just occasionally, an economic report is sufficiently surprising to draw investors' eyes away from the Strait of Hormuz. And today's jobs report is more likely to do so than most for two reasons:
- Jobs reports tend to be the most influential of all economic reports.
- Analysts' consensus forecasts, which are the basis for market expectations, are often wildly wrong for employment data, making a market-moving surprise more likely.
Mortgage rates just edged lower yesterday. But Freddie Mac reckons they fell modestly in its latest Thursday-to-Thursday weekly average rate: down to 6.48% from 6.53% a week earlier and from 6.85% a year ago.
Scroll on down for details of today's economic report and how it might affect mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.51% | 6.55% | -0.02% | +0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.66% | 5.71% | -0.02% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.87% | 7.08% | +-0% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.02% | 6.17% | +-0% | +0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.97% | 6.13% | +0.04% | +0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.77% | 6.78% | +0.05% | +0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.04% | 6.09% | -0.13% | +0.08% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.58% | 6.61% | +-0% | +0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.65% | 5.7% | -0.02% | +0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.87% | 7.08% | +-0% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.02% | 6.17% | -0.02% | +0.15% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.17% | 6.22% | -0.01% | +0.06% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
SIFMA warned in an e-newsletter on May 29: "Treasury yields [which mortgage rates typically track] could continue to rise even if the Iran war ends, as the primary driver of the recent increase in yields has been real yields, not inflation expectations. While oil prices and Treasury yields have moved in tandem recently, the correlation is weakening, and investors should focus on other factors, such as the Federal Reserve's actions and government debt issuance."
You might have noticed worrying reports in the financial press about the likelihood of inflation getting worse. For example, in an e-newsletter on May 10, The Economist wrote, "The Iran war is already causing pain for American motorists, who are paying more than $4.50 a gallon for petrol. Now Americans face a grocery-price shock."
On May 11, MarketWatch had similar concerns: "The surge in gasoline prices tied to the Iran war is set to drive U.S. inflation to a three-year high — and it might get worse before it gets better.
" ... That’s not the only downside of higher inflation," the report continued. "The increase in prices has handcuffed the Federal Reserve. The
central bank is likely to be stymied from cutting interest rates
aggressively, leaving the cost of borrowing painfully high for
prospective home buyers and anyone who needs a big loan."
The Fed
April's price indices (the CPI, PPI, IPI and PCE) tend to lend weight to these pessimistic arguments. And they landed well after the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee. Minutes of that meeting were published on May 20 and included the following:
"Almost all participants noted that there was a risk that the conflict in the Middle East could persist for an extended period or that, even after the conflict ended, the prices of oil and other commodities could remain elevated for longer than expected. In such scenarios, these participants expected continued upward pressure on inflation arising from supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, or the pass-through of higher input costs to other prices. The vast majority of participants noted an increased risk that inflation would take longer to return to the Committee’s 2 percent objective than they had previously expected."
Bottom line: "A majority of participants highlighted ... that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2 percent." Policy firming is Fedspeak for a rate hike.
Bond markets vs. stock markets
Mortgage rates are largely dictated by yields on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS). So, we focus on bond markets.
On May 7, The New York Times explored why stock markets and bond markets have been behaving so differently from each other since the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Investors in stocks have been wagering that U.S. companies will continue to generate large profits during the conflict. And the stock market typically cares only about whether dividends and company values will continue to rise.
"But the bond market is another matter," said The Times. "Bond traders have maintained a much sharper focus on risk. Yields remain correlated with shifts in the price of oil. As oil prices have spiked and inflation has risen, yields have risen and bond prices, which move in the opposite direction, have fallen."
Comerica Bank's weekly preview
On Monday, Comerica Bank published its weekly preview:
"Payrolls will likely rise modestly in the May jobs report [due today], but still outpace labor supply growth. An aging workforce and immigration restrictions mean fewer workers are entering the labor force. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady. Average hourly earnings likely rose modestly and slowed on a year-over-year basis."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are a consensus of a wider pool of analysts' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But only the May jobs report stands much chance of affecting mortgage rates.
Jobs reports contain three headline figures:
- Nonfarm payrolls (the number of new jobs created in May) — Markets expect 80,000, fewer than April's 115,000
- Unemployment rate — Markets expect 4.3%, unchanged since April
- Average hourly earnings (year over year) — Markets expect earnings to have risen 3.4% over the previous 12 months, less than April's 3.6%
Mortgage rates tend to fall when a report's actual figures are worse for the economy than expected, and to rise when they're better. When numbers are on or close to forecasts, those rates rarely move in response to the data.
Today's other economic report shows changes in consumer credit in April. It rarely affects mortgage rates, but is expected to show $18 billion of new consumer debt, less than March's $24.8 billion.
No economic reports are scheduled for Monday. But strap in for May's consumer price index, due Wednesday. It sometimes rivals the jobs report's influence, especially at times like this when inflation is such a hot topic.
