Mortgage Rates Today, June 1, 2026: Might Rates' Falls Stall?

The bigger picture

Last week was a good one for mortgage rates. Between last Friday evening and the previous Friday evening, they tumbled to 6.47% from 6.63%, according to ICanBuy.

So, why do we think that great run may be ending? Because it was almost wholly driven by hopes for an imminent peace deal between the U.S. and Iran.

"President Trump has toughened the terms of a potential framework for a deal to end the war in Iran, and has sent those proposed changes back to the country for consideration, according to three officials," reported The New York Times on Saturday.

Given that Iran had responded with neither enthusiasm nor alacrity to the earlier — presumably easier — proposal, and had described it as “excessive,” markets might decide that an agreement is still some way off, something that could push mortgage rates higher. Last night, The Guardian was reporting continuing cease-fire breaches by both sides.

However, markets are nothing if not unpredictable, so we hope we'll be proved wrong.

Scroll on down for details of all today's economic reports and how they might affect mortgage rates.

What's coming up?

Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.

SIFMA warned in an e-newsletter on May 29: "Treasury yields [which mortgage rates typically track] could continue to rise even if the Iran war ends, as the primary driver of the recent increase in yields has been real yields, not inflation expectations. While oil prices and Treasury yields have moved in tandem recently, the correlation is weakening, and investors should focus on other factors, such as the Federal Reserve's actions and government debt issuance."

You might have noticed worrying reports in the financial press about the likelihood of inflation getting worse. For example, in an e-newsletter on May 10, The Economist wrote, "The Iran war is already causing pain for American motorists, who are paying more than $4.50 a gallon for petrol. Now Americans face a grocery-price shock."

On May 11, MarketWatch had similar concerns: "The surge in gasoline prices tied to the Iran war is set to drive U.S. inflation to a three-year high — and it might get worse before it gets better.

" ... That’s not the only downside of higher inflation," the report continued. "The increase in prices has handcuffed the Federal Reserve. The central bank is likely to be stymied from cutting interest rates aggressively, leaving the cost of borrowing painfully high for prospective home buyers and anyone who needs a big loan."

The Fed

April's price indices (the CPI, PPI, IPI and PCE) tend to lend weight to these pessimistic arguments. And they landed well after the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee. Minutes of that meeting were published on May 20 and included the following:

"Almost all participants noted that there was a risk that the conflict in the Middle East could persist for an extended period or that, even after the conflict ended, the prices of oil and other commodities could remain elevated for longer than expected. In such scenarios, these participants expected continued upward pressure on inflation arising from supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, or the pass-through of higher input costs to other prices. The vast majority of participants noted an increased risk that inflation would take longer to return to the Committee’s 2 percent objective than they had previously expected."

Bottom line: "A majority of participants highlighted ... that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2 percent." Policy firming is Fedspeak for a rate hike.

Bond markets vs. stock markets

Mortgage rates are largely dictated by yields on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS). So, we focus on bond markets.

On May 7, The New York Times explored why stock markets and bond markets have been behaving so differently from each other since the start of the conflict in the Middle East.

Investors in stocks have been wagering that U.S. companies will continue to generate large profits during the conflict. And the stock market typically cares only about whether dividends and company values will continue to rise.

"But the bond market is another matter," said The Times. "Bond traders have maintained a much sharper focus on risk. Yields remain correlated with shifts in the price of oil. As oil prices have spiked and inflation has risen, yields have risen and bond prices, which move in the opposite direction, have fallen."

Mortgage rates today

There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar that warrant the analysts' consensus forecasts on which market expectations are based.

One is a purchasing managers' index (PMI). PMIs measure activity in purchasing departments, which can be an indicator of future economic activity.

The two are:

• May manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management — Markets expect the index to rise to 53.2%, up from 52.7% in April
• April construction spending — Markets expect spending growth to slow to 0.3% from 0.6% in March

Mortgage rates tend to fall when a report's actual figures are worse for the economy than expected, and to rise when they're better. When numbers are on or close to forecasts, those rates rarely move in response to the data.

Depending on markets' responses to developments in Middle Eastern peace talks, we'll be surprised if either of today's economic reports has much impact on mortgage rates.

Stand by for the official monthly jobs report, due on Friday. This is often the most influential of all economic reports. Earlier this week, we're due other employment data and another important PMI.