The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.59% today, a decrease of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.55%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.98%, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.92%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
With a quiet day today and markets closed on Friday for the July 4 holiday, the middle three days of this week are crammed with economic reports. By far the most important of those is June's jobs report (aka the employment situation report), due Thursday.
Jobs reports are often the single most important report in any given month. And this one is expected to show further weakening in the labor market. If the report's figures are even worse than expected, that would typically be good for mortgage rates, though there are never guarantees with these things.
Tariffs and deficits
Tariffs
The White House is upbeat about signing several trade deals in the coming days, says The Guardian. In addition to the one signed on May 8 with the UK, another was finalized last Thursday with China. Meanwhile, ones with the European Union and India may be imminent.
That's a lot of progress in a short time with the world's most important economies. However, the 90-day pause on tariffs announced in April is due to end on July 9 (next Wednesday), potentially leaving well over 100 countries without deals.
Markets seem to be hoping that those nations will be allowed to continue with a baseline 10% tariff rate. But nobody knows for sure what will happen, and we must wait to see what announcements are forthcoming between now and July 9.
If the original, much higher tariff rates resume that day, we might see mortgage rates fall in response. However, something else happening in the coming days could exert upward pressure on those rates.
Deficits
The U.S. Senate is currently debating its version of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB), which is a tax and spending measure. And The New York Times reports, "The sprawling tax and health care bill that Senate Republicans are trying to pass would add at least $3.3 trillion to the already-bulging national debt over a decade, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said on Sunday, putting a far higher price tag on the measure than some of the party’s fiscal hawks had indicated they could stomach."
This raises doubts about whether the OBBB will pass in its current form by the self-imposed July 4 deadline. Some of those fiscal hawks are ideologically and politically wedded to responsible government borrowing.
The bill's backers argue that much of that borrowing isn't new because the legislation only stops previous tax cuts from expiring on schedule. But that doesn't change the amounts the government will need.
Meanwhile, other legislators are worried about the electoral implications of removing health coverage from 11.8 million Americans over the next decade, a figure provided by the Congressional Budget Office for the Senate's version of the bill.
Meanwhile, NBC News says, "Congressional Republicans are eyeing increasing the debt limit by $4 trillion to $5 trillion so the government can keep borrowing to meet the country’s obligations."
Bond markets may struggle to fund this extra government borrowing without increasing yields on Treasury notes and bonds. And any increase in those yields would almost certainly have a knock-on effect on mortgage rates, forcing them higher, too.
Having said all that, there's one piece of potentially good news for mortgage rates in the revised OBBB. Section 899, which threatened to tax foreign investors in U.S. assets, has been dropped. That likely leaves those foreign investors in place to mop up some of the additional supply of U.S. debt.
Of course, we don't yet know what will happen to deficits and tariffs, let alone how markets will respond to events. But the next 10 days or so could be ... interesting.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.59% | 6.62% | -0.01% | -0.27% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.55% | 5.6% | -0.02% | -0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.98% | 7.19% | -0.02% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.06% | 6.2% | -0.05% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.09% | 6.24% | -0.13% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.92% | 6.93% | +0.01% | -0.59% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.51% | 6.55% | -0.06% | -0.39% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.65% | 6.68% | -0.02% | -0.27% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.56% | 5.6% | -0.02% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.96% | 7.16% | -0.03% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.09% | 6.23% | -0.05% | -0.28% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.56% | 6.59% | -0.09% | -0.42% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar shows just one economic report due. And it's one that rarely affects mortgage rates.
It's June's Chicago Business Barometer. And it's expected to improve, rising to 43.0 from 40.5 in May.
With most reports, higher-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones often exert downward pressure. But, as we said, we'll be surprised if today's has any perceptible impact.
