The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.73% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.89%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 6.11% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.86%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
The good news of the Federal Reserve holding general interest rates steady combined with the bad news of a re-escalation in the Middle East conflict to leave mortgage rates effectively unchanged yesterday.
Today's crucial report is the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation because it's the most accurate. But the first reading (of three) of gross domestic product (GDP) during the second quarter might also prove influential over mortgage rates.
Scroll on down to see more about today's economic reports and how they might affect mortgage rates.
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.73% | 6.78% | +0% | +0.29% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.89% | 5.95% | -0.01% | +0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.11% | 7.32% | +0% | +0.29% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.19% | 6.35% | +0.02% | +0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.15% | 6.32% | +0.03% | +0.29% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.86% | 6.87% | -0.03% | +0.29% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.22% | 6.31% | +0.06% | +0.09% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.77% | 6.81% | +0.01% | +0.29% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.85% | 5.92% | +-0% | +0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.09% | 7.3% | +0.02% | +0.29% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.19% | 6.28% | +0.02% | +0.24% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.21% | 6.25% | -0.73% | +0.1% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
The Fed
The Federal Reserve's rate-setting body (the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC) left general interest rates unchanged yesterday, as many expected. However, most now think a hike is likely at the next FOMC meeting on Sep. 16, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Assuming that the war in Iran doesn't end quickly, we think such a hike is a sensible expectation. A prolonged conflict is likely to fuel inflation, and the Fed has a duty to maintain that at around 2% annually.
The Fed doesn't directly set new fixed-rate mortgage rates. But the factors that influence its decisions (and to a lesser extent the decisions themselves) certainly do move those rates.
Why bond markets act differently from stock markets
Mortgage rates are largely dictated by the yields on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS). So, we focus on bond markets.
On May 7, The New York Times explored why stock markets and bond markets have been behaving so differently from each other since the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Investors in stocks have been wagering that U.S. companies will continue to generate large profits during the conflict. And the stock market typically cares only about whether dividends and company values will continue to rise.
"But the bond market is another matter," said The Times. "Bond traders have maintained a much sharper focus on risk. Yields remain correlated with shifts in the price of oil. As oil prices have spiked and inflation has risen, yields have risen and bond prices, which move in the opposite direction, have fallen."
Comerica Bank's weekly preview
On Monday, Comerica Bank published its weekly preview:
"The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50% to 3.75% at this week’s decision. This would mark the fifth consecutive meeting with no change since the Fed last cut in December 2025. Financial markets will likely focus on the Committee’s assessment of core inflation, since the Fed ended forward guidance after Kevin Warsh became Chair. The policy statement will likely lay out another mixed picture of inflation’s drivers. On the one hand, good news from relatively tame house prices and rent increases, and from the dissipating impact of 2025’s tariff hikes. On the other, bad news from rebounding energy prices as disruptions to Mideast and Russian exports resurface; new tariffs; AI-related pressure on electronics prices; and labor supply bottlenecks pushing up prices of services like home health care and nursing care. If the Committee or Chair Warsh offer even an inkling of guidance, they likely will indicate that the decision between holding rates steady or hiking in September will be data dependent.
"Real GDP [aka gross domestic product] growth is forecast to pick up in the advance (first) estimate for the second quarter of 2026, supported by strong nonresidential fixed investment—reflecting the AI boom—and resilient consumer spending. The trade deficit likely widened, weighing on growth. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation likely slowed in June on lower energy prices and cooler core inflation. Don’t expect markets to take much comfort from these data; July’s rebound in energy prices will deliver another setback to the next batch of inflation reports."
Comerica Bank's previews don't always match up with market expectations, which are based on the consensus forecasts of a wider pool of analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. The one most likely to move mortgage rates is the PCE price index, which is the most accurate of the inflation gauges.
However, today's may not be as influential as previous ones. That's because it covers June, when the Iran war was off and on, and price rises slowed. Most expect July and August's inflation rates to accelerate again as the war has re-escalated in the second half of the month.
Price indices have four headline figures. Two cover the reporting month (June), and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) figures, which report the period Jul. 1, 2025 to June 30, 2026.
One for each period is the straight PCE figure, which includes all items in the survey. The other measures "core" inflation, which is all items excluding food and energy prices.
Here's what markets are expecting from June's PCE report:
- June PCE — Markets expect all prices to have fallen by 0.1%, having risen by 0.4% in May
- YOY PCE — Markets expect all prices to have risen by 3.7% YOY, having risen by 4.1% in May
- June core PCE — Markets expect core prices to have risen by 0.2%, having risen by 0.3% in May
- YOY core PCE — Markets expect all prices to have risen by 3.3% YOY, having risen by 3.4% in May
With inflation reports, lower-than-expected figures are almost always good for mortgage rates.
Today's other economic reports are:
- First reading of GDP during Q2/26 — Markets expect GDP growth to have slowed to 1.8% from 2.1% in the first quarter
- Jobless figures for the week ending Jul. 25 — New claims for unemployment benefits are expected to number 200,000, up from the previous week's 187,000
Typically, mortgage rates rise when such figures are better than expected and fall when they're worse. On-forecast figures often leave those rates unchanged.
What's next?
Tomorrow's schedule brings the employment cost index for the second quarter, another inflation gauge. It also brings the consumer sentiment index for July.
Air strikes in the Middle East over the last couple of weeks have pushed mortgage rates appreciably higher, and they may continue upward if the conflict resumes.
That's because a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could again choke off 20% of the world's oil supply, putting additional pressure on gas, diesel and many other prices.
Strategic petroleum reserves in the U.S. and globally are now at multi-decade lows, meaning there's less room to cushion consumers from rising gas prices. And many oil refineries in the Middle East and Russia are out of commission following war damage, sending oil prices lower. Why buy oil when you can't refine it?
Unfortunately, that hasn't translated into appreciably lower gas and diesel prices because a lack of refining capacity exacerbates rather than moderates supply issues, while demand remains fairly steady.
