Mortgage Rates Today, July 17, 2026: Consumer Sentiment on Today's Agenda

The bigger picture

Mortgage rates rose a little yesterday, continuing their pattern of ups and downs. They'll begin this morning very close to where they ended last Friday.

We're still unsure why markets aren't paying more attention to the near-certain inflationary effects of the Iran war. But they'll have to face them one day.

Today's economic reports include the consumer sentiment index, which sometimes influences mortgage rates, and the import price index (IPI), which only occasionally does.

Scroll on down for details of today's economic reports and how they might affect mortgage rates.

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What's coming up?

Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.

The Fed

May's price indices (the CPI, PPI, IPI and PCE) tend to lend weight to pessimistic arguments about future inflation rates. And those reports landed either side of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee on Jun. 16-17.

The minutes of that meeting were released on July 7, and Barron's reported that day:

"The minutes from Kevin Warsh’s [the new Fed chair's] first Federal Reserve policy meeting contained few surprises, but underscored how divided policymakers remained over the path of interest rates. That could be a sign the Fed will stay on hold for longer."

"Nine policymakers penciled in at least one rate hike by the end of the year, according to the Summary of Economic Projections released in June, continued Barron's. "Eight officials expected no changes to the benchmark rate, while only one official believed the committee would implement a rate cut by the end of the year. Warsh declined to provide projections."

The minutes themselves revealed: "Most participants remarked on scenarios in which inflationary pressures would dissipate and inflation would soon begin to return to 2 percent. In such scenarios, almost all of these participants noted that it would likely be appropriate to maintain or eventually lower the target range for the federal funds rate. Most participants, however, also pointed to scenarios in which, in the context of stable labor market conditions, inflation would remain elevated due to strong AI-related demand, the conflict in the Middle East, or the effects of tariffs. In such scenarios, almost all of these participants indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2 percent."

In this context, "policy firming" very likely means one or more hikes to general interest rates this year.

The Fed doesn't directly set new fixed-rate mortgage rates. But the factors that influence its decisions (and to a lesser extent the decisions themselves) certainly do move those rates.

Bond markets vs. stock markets

Mortgage rates are largely dictated by the yields on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS). So, we focus on bond markets.

On May 7, The New York Times explored why stock markets and bond markets have been behaving so differently from each other since the start of the conflict in the Middle East.

Investors in stocks have been wagering that U.S. companies will continue to generate large profits during the conflict. And the stock market typically cares only about whether dividends and company values will continue to rise.

"But the bond market is another matter," said The Times. "Bond traders have maintained a much sharper focus on risk. Yields remain correlated with shifts in the price of oil. As oil prices have spiked and inflation has risen, yields have risen and bond prices, which move in the opposite direction, have fallen."

Mortgage rates today

There are five economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. June's consumer sentiment index is the most likely to affect mortgage rates.

Here are market expectations for all five:

• July consumer sentiment — Markets expect this to have risen to 50.5, an improvement on June's 48.9%
• June import prices — Markets expect these to have fallen by -0.8%, compared with May's +1.9%
• June housing starts — Markets expect these to have risen to an annualized 1.3 million, up from May's 1.2 million
• June industrial production — Markets expect production growth to accelerate to 0.2% from 0.1% in May
• June capacity utilization — Markets expect industrial capacity utilization to have held steady at 76.2%

Typically, mortgage rates rise when economic data is better than expected, while worse-than-expected figures tend to drive them lower. Numbers that land on forecast rarely affect mortgage rates much.

What's next?

Next week is a very slow one for economic reports.

Events in the Middle East over the week or so might push mortgage rates appreciably higher if the renewed conflict is not swiftly resolved. That's because a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could again choke off 20% of the world's oil supply, putting additional pressure on gas, diesel and many other prices.

While so far markets have often shrugged off the inflationary pressures of the war, that's something that could change any day.