The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.63% yesterday, an increase of 0.01% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.82%, up by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.95% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.68%, reflecting a decrease of 0.07%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates only inched higher yesterday, despite oil prices rising by more than 9%. However, there are signs those rates may play catch-up today. So it's too soon to relax.
Depending on what it says, this morning's consumer price index (CPI) could moderate or exacerbate any rise in mortgage rates we see today. Bond markets (one of which determines those rates) are exceptionally sensitive to inflation. And Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh yesterday said a bad report could see a hike in general interest rates later this month.
Meanwhile, a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was announced yesterday, and another wave of airstrikes on Iran began last night. Such news is typically bad for mortgage rates.
Scroll on down for details of today's economic reports and how they might affect mortgage rates.
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.63% | 6.67% | +0.01% | +0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.82% | 5.88% | +0.04% | +0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.95% | 7.16% | +-0% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.07% | 6.23% | +0% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.98% | 6.15% | -0.01% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.68% | 6.7% | -0.07% | +0% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.11% | 6.2% | +0.02% | +0.01% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.68% | 6.72% | +0.03% | +0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.78% | 5.84% | +0.03% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.93% | 7.14% | -0.01% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.06% | 6.15% | +-0% | -0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.17% | 6.24% | -0.01% | +0% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
The Fed
May's price indices (the CPI, PPI, IPI and PCE) tend to lend weight to pessimistic arguments about future inflation rates. And those reports landed either side of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee on Jun. 16-17.
The minutes of that meeting were released on July 7, and Barron's reported that day:
"The minutes from Kevin Warsh’s [the new Fed chair's] first Federal Reserve policy meeting contained few surprises, but underscored how divided policymakers remained over the path of interest rates. That could be a sign the Fed will stay on hold for longer."
"Nine policymakers penciled in at least one rate hike by the end of the year, according to the Summary of Economic Projections released in June, continued Barron's. "Eight officials expected no changes to the benchmark rate, while only one official believed the committee would implement a rate cut by the end of the year. Warsh declined to provide projections."
The minutes themselves revealed: "Most participants remarked on scenarios in which inflationary pressures would dissipate and inflation would soon begin to return to 2 percent. In such scenarios, almost all of these participants noted that it would likely be appropriate to maintain or eventually lower the target range for the federal funds rate. Most participants, however, also pointed to scenarios in which, in the context of stable labor market conditions, inflation would remain elevated due to strong AI-related demand, the conflict in the Middle East, or the effects of tariffs. In such scenarios, almost all of these participants indicated that some policy
firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2 percent."
In this context, "policy firming" very likely means one or more hikes to general interest rates this year.
The Fed doesn't directly set new fixed-rate mortgage rates. But the factors that influence its decisions (and to a lesser extent the decisions themselves) certainly do move those rates.
Bond markets vs. stock markets
Mortgage rates are largely dictated by the yields on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS). So, we focus on bond markets.
On May 7, The New York Times explored why stock markets and bond markets have been behaving so differently from each other since the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Investors in stocks have been wagering that U.S. companies will continue to generate large profits during the conflict. And the stock market typically cares only about whether dividends and company values will continue to rise.
"But the bond market is another matter," said The Times. "Bond traders have maintained a much sharper focus on risk. Yields remain correlated with shifts in the price of oil. As oil prices have spiked and inflation has risen, yields have risen and bond prices, which move in the opposite direction, have fallen."
Comerica Bank's weekly preview
On Monday, Comerica Bank published its weekly preview:
"CPI inflation likely eased back below 4% [year-over-year] in June as energy flows
resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, helping U.S. gas and diesel prices
reverse part of their spring surge. PPI inflation, which is more
sensitive to energy prices than the CPI, likely slowed as well, moving
back below 6%. However, core CPI and PPI likely improved less and
probably continue to run above levels consistent with the Fed’s 2%
inflation target, which is measured by the PCE price index (PCE averages
about a quarter percentage point below CPI over the long run). Last
week’s re-escalation of the Iran conflict pushed U.S. energy prices
modestly higher, potentially obstructing further progress toward lower
inflation in July."
Mortgage rates today
There is only one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. However, June's CPI is likely to totally eclipse that month's NFIB index of small business optimism.
Like other price indices, the CPI has four main components. However, MarketWatch now provides only three of the analysts' consensus forecasts on which market expectations are based.
One relates only to June, and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) figures, which cover from July 1, 2025 to June 30, 2026. One of the YOY numbers is for "core" inflation, which excludes energy and food prices.
Here are market expectations for those three readings:
- June CPI — Markets expect all prices to have fallen by 0.2% after rising by 0.5% in May
- YOY CPI — Markets expect all prices to have risen by 3.8% over the previous 12 months after rising by 4.2% YOY in May
- YOY core CPI — Markets expect core prices to have risen by 2.9% over the previous 12 months, unchanged from May
Figures above those expectations are likely to see mortgage rates rise, while smaller numbers would typically push those rates lower.
What's next?
Tomorrow brings the producer price index (PPI) for June, which is the CPI's little brother. PPIs rarely affect mortgage rates as much as CPIs.
After that, we're due June retail sales data on Thursday and a preliminary reading of July's consumer sentiment index on Friday.
Events in the Middle East over the last few days might push mortgage rates appreciably higher if the renewed conflict is not swiftly resolved. That's because a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could again choke off 20% of the world's oil supply, putting additional pressure on gas (and many other) prices.
