The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.58% today, an increase of 0.1% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.73%, up by 0.06%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.91%, having risen by 0.08. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.62%, reflecting an increase of 0.11%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates edged up yesterday. Some of that was likely down to that morning's mildly disappointing economic data. But it might also have been a result of large investors tidying up their portfolios for the quarter's end.
Wall Street sometimes sees ADP employment reports as a bellwether for the official jobs report, due tomorrow. So, this morning's ADP publication could affect mortgage rates.
However, it's that June jobs report that really counts. Absent big news about the Middle East, it could set the scene for mortgage rates for at least a week.
Scroll on down for details of today's economic reports and how they might affect mortgage rates.
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.58% | 6.62% | +0.1% | +0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.73% | 5.8% | +0.06% | +0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.91% | 7.13% | +0.08% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.05% | 6.2% | +0.08% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.98% | 6.15% | +0.05% | +0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.62% | 6.64% | +0.11% | -0.15% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.12% | 6.2% | +0.02% | +0.08% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.63% | 6.67% | +0.1% | +0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.69% | 5.75% | +0.05% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.91% | 7.12% | +0.08% | +0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.05% | 6.14% | +0.08% | +0.04% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.26% | 6.33% | +0.17% | +0.13% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
The Fed
April's price indices (the CPI, PPI, IPI and PCE) tend to lend weight to pessimistic arguments about future inflation rates.
May's consumer price index and producer price index, published on Jun. 10 and 11, respectively, were even worse than April's. Meanwhile, May's import price index, released Jun. 16, came in worse than markets were expecting. May's PCE price index is due today.
Those reports landed well after the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee. Minutes of that meeting were published on May 20 and included the following:
"Almost all participants noted that there was a risk that the conflict in the Middle East could persist for an extended period or that, even after the conflict ended, the prices of oil and other commodities could remain elevated for longer than expected. In such scenarios, these participants expected continued upward pressure on inflation arising from supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, or the pass-through of higher input costs to other prices. The vast majority of participants noted an increased risk that inflation would take longer to return to the Committee’s 2 percent objective than they had previously expected."
Bottom line: "A majority of participants highlighted ... that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2 percent." Policy firming is Fedspeak for a rate hike.
We should get the minutes of the Jun. 17 meeting roughly three weeks from that date. But events surrounding that showed committee members all but ruling out a further cut to general interest rates this year. And almost half of them now expect a hike in 2026.
Bond markets vs. stock markets
Mortgage rates are largely dictated by yields on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS). So, we focus on bond markets.
On May 7, The New York Times explored why stock markets and bond markets have been behaving so differently from each other since the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Investors in stocks have been wagering that U.S. companies will continue to generate large profits during the conflict. And the stock market typically cares only about whether dividends and company values will continue to rise.
"But the bond market is another matter," said The Times. "Bond traders have maintained a much sharper focus on risk. Yields remain correlated with shifts in the price of oil. As oil prices have spiked and inflation has risen, yields have risen and bond prices, which move in the opposite direction, have fallen."
Comerica Bank's weekly preview
On Monday, Comerica Bank published its weekly preview:
"The June jobs report is forecast to show that employers added more than 100,000 jobs again last month, holding the unemployment rate roughly steady near four and a quarter percent. The volatile survey of households will likely show the labor supply held about flat in the first half of 2026, restrained by an aging population and tighter immigration policies. The June jobs report won’t reflect the effects of the U.S.-Iran de-escalation, since its surveys cover the period before the deal was announced. One especially useful detail in the household survey will be unemployment among workers aged 20 to 24 with no prior work experience (Largely the Class of 2026). It likely pulled back relative to June 2025, when it tied 2020 for the highest June since 2016.
"Consumer confidence is forecast to rise in June on the month’s decline in gas prices. Inflation expectations should fall and vacation intentions improve, good tidings for the rest of the summer travel season."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are based on a consensus of a wider pool of analysts' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There are again four economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But the two most likely to affect mortgage rates are the ADP employment report (private sector jobs only) and the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
Here are today's four reports, along with market expectations for each:
- June ADP employment report — Markets expect 110,000 new private sector jobs that quarter, down from May's 122,000
- June ISM PMI for manufacturing — Markets expect the index to inch down to 53.9 from May's 54.0
- June S&P Global PMI for manufacturing — Markets expect the index to edge up to 55.7 from May's 55.1
- May construction spending — Markets expect this spending to increase by 0.2%, more slowly than April's 0.4%
Typically, worse-than-expected numbers in a report are better for mortgage rates, while better-than-expected figures tend to push those rates higher, all other things being equal. When numbers come in as expected, mortgage rates rarely move far.
What's next?
By far the most important event scheduled this week is the official jobs report for June, which is due tomorrow. That day's other reports are unlikely to make a splash.
Bond markets will be closed on Friday, so mortgage rates shouldn't move and we shall not be publishing this report that day.
Of course, significant developments in the Middle East would likely upend everything and may even overshadow the jobs report. For lower mortgage rates, we should hope that the chances of an abiding peace improve.
