The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.74% yesterday, an increase of 0.04% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.72%, up by 0.06%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 6.03% yesterday, having risen by 0.08. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 7.05%, reflecting an increase of 0.06%.
The bigger picture
Two events today have the potential to affect mortgage rates. Of course, that doesn't mean they will. Those rates typically react only when an event brings unexpected news.
The first of those events is the publication of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last (June 17-18) meeting of its rate-setting committee. We suspect that markets already know the key details of that meeting, but who knows if surprises might emerge?
The second event is an auction today of 10-year Treasury notes worth $39 billion. A second auction is due tomorrow, this time for 30-year Treasury bonds worth $22 billion.
These auctions are typically routine, but they are especially consequential at present because markets are concerned that increased government borrowing could reduce demand for government debt. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.
If demand at these auctions holds up well, that could drive mortgage rates lower. But disappointing demand might push them higher.
Read A Surprise Factor Now Affecting Mortgage Rates: U.S. Treasury Auctions.
Tariffs
Why aren't renewed headlines on tariffs causing more movement in mortgage rates? The consensus in financial media seems to be that markets are skeptical that these import duties will arrive as quickly and at such high levels as advertised.
MarketWatch quoted one analyst who talked about the government moving "the goal post on time back multiple times, and each time, the market responded negatively,” said Bob Lang, chief options analyst at Explosive Options. “But it’s been less of a negative response every single time, so the market is starting to get conditioned to believe [it will] dial it back here.”
Meanwhile, Barron's offered a couple of explanations. "It could be expectations that more deals will be reached ahead of the new Aug. 1 deadline, or that [the government] might eventually back down," it suggested. Some may be thinking that the effect of tariffs won’t be too bad because they haven’t had a big impact so far.
"But there’s also a case that investors have become too complacent. It’s true that tariffs have yet to stunt economic growth, spark a burst in inflation, or decimate company earnings. But the real test is yet to come." We might get a better idea of what businesses expect as companies report their second-quarter earnings over the coming days.
In other words, we'll just have to wait and see what the tariff landscape looks like once it is in place. And then wait and see some more to recognize its impact.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.74% | 6.77% | +0.04% | -0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.72% | 5.77% | +0.06% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.03% | 7.23% | +0.08% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.12% | 6.27% | +0.08% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.07% | 6.21% | +0.05% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.05% | 7.07% | +0.06% | -0.14% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.8% | 6.84% | +0.09% | +0.15% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.81% | 6.84% | +0.08% | -0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.72% | 5.77% | +0.06% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6% | 7.2% | +0.08% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.17% | 6.31% | +0.08% | -0.14% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.88% | 6.92% | +0.08% | +0.16% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficits are especially influential at the moment.
In its Comerica Economic Weekly, Comerica Bank's economics team reveals its expectations for the coming few days:
"In a quiet week for economic releases, the most important will be the minutes of the Fed’s June decision. They will probably reinforce that
the Committee expected to hold interest rates steady at their July decision when they met in June. The federal budget balance likely swung from a deficit in May to a surplus in June, with tariffs boosting receipts. Continued unemployment insurance claims likely moved higher in late June as workers losing jobs took longer to find new employment amid anemic hiring."
Mortgage rates today
Just one economic report appears on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. It concerns wholesale inventories. Markets expect these to fall as stock ordered to beat the April tariffs moves through onto retailers' shelves. They're expected to contract by -0.3%, having increased by 0.2% in the previous reporting period.
Don't expect much reaction in markets to this relatively uninfluential report. Indeed, we shouldn't be surprised if all this week's reports fail to attract enough attention to perceptibly affect mortgage rates.
However, don't forget that the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the last meeting of its rate-setting committee at 2 p.m. Eastern. And there's an important auction of 10-year Treasury notes today. See above for more on both.
