The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.34% yesterday, an increase of 0.06% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.45%, up by 0.06%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.68% yesterday, having risen by 0.09. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.51%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
"Showtime," said Barron's Review and Preview e-newsletter yesterday evening. "The moment Wall Street has spent the last six weeks waiting for has nearly arrived: The Federal Reserve will make its final interest-rate decision of the year at 2 p.m. ET tomorrow."
So, the countdown to today's Federal Reserve events is now measured in hours. Here's this afternoon's timetable (all times are EST):
- 2 p.m. — Rate announcement. Likely to be a small cut to general interest rates.
- 2 p.m. — Summary of economic projections, including "dot plot" (see below).
- 2:30 p.m. — News conference hosted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Let's look at the possible implications of each of those for mortgage rates. Of course, there may be no implications if Powell and the two documents say precisely what markets are anticipating.
Scroll down for our take on how this afternoon's events might play out — and what different scenarios might mean for mortgage rates.
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.34% | 6.36% | +0.06% | +0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.45% | 5.5% | +0.06% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.68% | 6.88% | +0.09% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.72% | 5.86% | +0.06% | +0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.75% | 5.9% | +0.12% | +0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.51% | 6.52% | +0.03% | -0.18% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.16% | 6.19% | +0.08% | -0.11% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.42% | 6.44% | +0.08% | +0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.44% | 5.47% | +0.05% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.64% | 6.84% | +0.08% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.75% | 5.89% | +0.06% | +0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.13% | 6.16% | +0.03% | -0.25% |
Rate announcement
Investors are close to certain that the Fed will cut the Fed funds rate target by 0.25% (25 basis points) today. That particular rate is the basis of most variable rates, including for things like credit cards, overdrafts, installment loans, and adjustable-rate mortgages that are past their initial fixed-rate period. So, borrowing on those should soon become a little cheaper in response to a cut this afternoon.
The Fed funds rate affects rates on new mortgages only indirectly, and investors have already priced a 25-basis-point cut into those. So, they will only move on the announcement if the Fed springs a surprise and leaves its rate unchanged. In that event, they're likely to rise, perhaps sharply.
Summary of economic projections
The key document in the Fed's economic projections is the "dot plot." This is a chart that shows how each individual member of the Fed's rate-setting body (the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC) expects the Fed funds rate to move in the coming months and years.
If the dot plot reveals that FOMC members expect the Fed funds rate to fall more slowly than markets currently expect, mortgage rates might rise. But if they think it will fall more quickly than expected, mortgage rates might fall.
Expectations for the January and March meetings are relatively low, so any rise is likely to be small, unless the dot plot is shockingly out of line with market thinking.
Fed chair's news conference
Powell's news conference is highly unpredictable. The Fed chair will retire in May, and the president is already interviewing replacements. Does this mean Powell is already a lame duck? If so, markets might shrug off his remarks. If not, mortgage rates might rise if he's pessimistic about future cuts or fall if he's optimistic about them.
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
With the government now reopened, we can anticipate the publication of official reports to slowly return to normal. Had the shutdown been brief, we could have expected a flood of official economic reports on reopening. But the length of the hiatus means that it is no longer the case. Data won't have been collected — let alone compiled and prepared for publication — during the shutdown. So, delayed and even canceled reports are inevitable.
This week
In its weekly preview, Comerica Bank predicts:
"Comerica Economics forecasts for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut the federal funds target a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 3.50% and 3.75% at its last decision of the year this Wednesday. Several FOMC members will likely dissent again. The Fed will likely be tight-lipped about the outlook for rates in 2026 given conflicting views among FOMC members. The FOMC probably will signal measures to support short-term funding markets after signs of tight liquidity in them in recent months. Job openings likely fell again in October. The federal government is expected to have run a smaller deficit in November after a very large monthly deficit in October. The trade deficit likely narrowed in September as import demand cooled; importers front-loaded purchases earlier in 2025 to avoid tariffs and so felt less need to buy imports this fall."
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. The more important one is due at 8:30 a.m. (EST), and is the third quarter's employment cost index.
That is an important inflation indicator for wages. If the FOMC has a chance, it might consider this report when deciding whether to cut general interest rates this afternoon.
Markets are expecting that index to be 0.9% in the third quarter, unchanged since the second quarter. If it comes in higher than that, mortgage rates might rise, but a lower figure could see them fall.
Today's other report is the federal budget for November, and is due at 2 p.m. EST. This rarely moves mortgage rates.
Tomorrow brings a couple of relatively minor reports: initial jobless claims during the week ending Dec. 6, and the September trade deficit. If either of those affects mortgage rates, it's unlikely to be by much.
