Mortgage Rates Today, August 17, 2026: Government Borrowing Affecting Rates

The bigger picture

Last week was weird. Take Friday. Mortgage rates should have dropped moderately that day on grim retail sales and consumer sentiment data. But they actually inched higher. Why?

"The U.S. sold $25 billion in 30-year Treasurys on Thursday at 5.216%, the highest paid for yields of this maturity since 2001, reflecting concerns over U.S. debt and high inflation," reported The Wall Street Journal that day. "'The auction reflected worries over the 'growing federal debt burden and inflation that remains above the Fed’s target,'" Danske Bank analysts say in a note.

"Higher borrowing costs add pressure to public finances as debt servicing already exceeds defense spending, they note," The Journal continued. "Earlier this week, 10-year Treasurys were sold at their highest yield since 2007." Mortgage rates famously have a close (though imperfect) relationship with yields on 10-year Treasury notes.

Scroll on down for more details about today's economic reports and how they might affect mortgage rates.

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What's coming up?

Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.

The war and mortgage rates

Peace talks with Iran or mediators have been underway since Aug. 1 and initially helped mortgage rates fall moderately. While we all know how fragile such negotiations are and how hard it is to make deals stick, markets seemed happy to work with the hope of an imminent end to the conflict. However, that hope seems to be fading.

"Over the weekend [Aug. 8-9], Mr. Trump said his new strategy was to be 'low-keying it' in Iran, a suggestion that he wants to pressure the country into making a favorable deal without taking major military action," said The New York Times on Aug. 10.

Iran is certainly in a weak position economically, and waiting for it to buckle may well be a smart way to resolve the conflict. However, markets are anxious for a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and seem to have taken the president's new position as a sign the dispute could drag on for considerably longer than previously expected — hence this week's higher oil prices.

The war, oil prices, inflation and mortgage rates

Mortgage rates respond to war news because a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could again choke off 20% of the world's oil supply, putting additional pressure on gas, diesel and many other prices. It would take years to build the infrastructure necessary to bypass the Strait completely.

Strategic petroleum reserves in the U.S. and elsewhere globally are now at multi-decade lows, meaning there's less room to cushion consumers from rising gas prices. It may not feel like it, but this method of suppressing pump prices has been in place since the start of the conflict.

Trading Economics says, "US Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude inventories fell to 307.650 million [barrels, presumably] for the week ending July 24, marking the lowest level since 1983."

Meanwhile, many oil refineries in the Middle East and Russia are out of commission due to damage from the separate wars involving Iran and Ukraine. That began by sending oil prices lower on most days — though less consistently recently. Why buy crude oil when you can't refine it?

Unfortunately, that has so far translated into only moderately lower gas and diesel prices because a lack of refining capacity exacerbates rather than moderates supply issues for consumers and businesses, while demand remains fairly steady.

In his Substack post on Aug. 13, Nobel-prize-winning economist Paul Krugman backed up what we've been saying for some weeks. He referred to the "crack spread," which is the difference between the price of a barrel of crude oil and that for a barrel of "cracked" (aka refined) oil, which he said had exploded by about $35 since the start of the Iran conflict.

"So while the price of a barrel of crude is up around $25, the price of the products refined from that barrel is up about 25+35=60 dollars per barrel," wrote Krugman.

Why? "The shortage of refining capacity has, in turn, held crude prices down: Buyers aren’t willing to pay extremely high prices for crude oil they can’t refine," continued Krugman. "Or to put it a different but equivalent way, the cutoff of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in effect required a large rise in global oil prices to ration demand, but much of that rationing has taken place through a rise in the crack spread rather than a rise in crude oil prices."

Of course, any sudden good news from the Middle East could still send mortgage rates tumbling, regardless of that day's economic reports. Unfortunately, sudden bad news could send them soaring.

The Fed

The Federal Reserve's rate-setting body (the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC) left general interest rates unchanged on Jul. 29, as many expected. However, many now think a hike is likely at the next FOMC meeting on Sep. 16, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Still, that's been changing. Over the weekend, that tool showed a 33.1% chance of a small hike, while on Thursday evening it stood at 34.8%, and a week ago at 44.4%.

That change was down to markets hoping that Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's PPI would allow the FOMC to hold general interest rates steady at its next meeting, especially following disappointing employment figures in the previous week's jobs report. They won't harm those chances, but the Fed will have seen August's CPI, PPI and jobs report by the time the committee next meets.

Assuming that the war in Iran doesn't end quickly, we think a small hike remains a sensible expectation for Sep. 16. A prolonged conflict is likely to fuel inflation, and the Fed has a duty to maintain that at 2% annually, a goal reaffirmed by Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, on Jul. 29. The main tool the Fed uses to rein in inflation is rate hikes.

Stand by for next Wednesday's publication of the minutes of the FOMC's last meeting on Jul. 29. Depending on what those minutes reveal about the chances of a hike on Sep. 16, mortgage rates might rise or fall that day.

The Fed doesn't directly set new fixed-rate mortgage rates. But the factors that influence its decisions (and to a lesser extent the decisions themselves) certainly do move those rates, usually in advance of Fed rate-change announcements.

Why bond markets act differently from stock markets

Mortgage rates are largely dictated by the yields on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS). So, we focus on bond markets.

On May 7, The New York Times explored why stock markets and bond markets have been behaving so differently from each other since the start of the conflict in the Middle East.

Investors in stocks have been wagering that U.S. companies will continue to generate large profits during the conflict. And the stock market typically cares only about whether dividends and company values will continue to rise.

"But the bond market is another matter," said The Times. "Bond traders have maintained a much sharper focus on risk. Yields remain correlated with shifts in the price of oil. As oil prices have spiked and inflation has risen, yields have risen and bond prices, which move in the opposite direction, have fallen."

Mortgage rates today

There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. Barring shocking data, we doubt either will move mortgage rates far.

They are:

• August Empire State manufacturing survey — Markets expect the index to fall to 12, down from July's 15.6
• August National Association of Home Builders housing market index — Markets expect the index to fall to 33, down from July's 34

Typically, mortgage rates rise when economic data are better than expected and fall when they're worse. On-forecast figures often leave those rates unchanged.

What's next?

This week brings way fewer important economic reports than last week did.

However, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes are due on Wednesday, and sometimes they provide insights that can move mortgage rates.