The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.52% yesterday, a decrease of 0.1% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.48%, down by 0.13%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.8% yesterday, having dropped by 0.14. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.84%, reflecting a decrease of 0.08%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage lenders change their rates card once a day, most days; occasionally twice if bond yields keep moving significantly. Those yields moved such a distance last Friday following that day's jobs report that lenders had some catching up to do yesterday morning.
And so mortgage rates kept falling on Monday, dropping to a level last seen early in October 2024, according to Mortgage News Daily, which tracks these things. So much has happened over the last 10 months that it can be hard to remember that long ago.
Currently, "there’s a lot of opportunity out there for both home buyers and homeowners," said Alex Elezaj, chief strategy officer at United Wholesale Mortgage, in an interview yesterday afternoon with MarketWatch. "If you’re in the market to buy a home, lower rates could mean you can afford more houses for your money," he continued.
This week looks set to be a quiet one for economic data. So, it will likely take some economically sensitive news items (perhaps political announcements or important geopolitical shifts) to send mortgage rates significantly higher (or lower) over the coming days. For once, this really does mean that no news is good news.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.52% | 6.55% | -0.1% | -0.12% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.48% | 5.53% | -0.13% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.8% | 7.01% | -0.14% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.89% | 6.04% | -0.12% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.79% | 5.93% | -0.2% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.84% | 6.86% | -0.08% | -0.14% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.51% | 6.54% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.58% | 6.61% | -0.11% | -0.13% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.48% | 5.53% | -0.13% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.78% | 6.99% | -0.13% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.94% | 6.08% | -0.12% | -0.11% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.53% | 6.56% | -0.24% | -0.25% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's economics team's take on what's likely to happen this week:
"The economic calendar is light this week. The trade deficit is expected to have fallen sharply in June as goods imports declined further on the back of steep tariff increases. The ISM Services PMI will probably show the services sector expanded for the second consecutive month, albeit at a slower pace. Productivity likely rebounded to growth in the second quarter, and unit labor cost increases slowed. Consumer credit likely rose at a modest pace for the second successive month in June."
Mortgage rates today
If any reports are likely to affect mortgage rates during this quiet week, it's those scheduled for today. Productivity figures due on Thursday could also create ripples. But we'll be surprised if we see any big movements.
Three economic reports appear on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. Two of them are purchasing managers' indices (PMIs), which measure activity in organizations' purchasing departments. As such, they can provide some guidance for future output. Of the two, the one from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) tends to affect markets more than the other.
Today's three reports, in likely order of importance, are:
- July ISM PMI for the services sector — Expected to nudge higher to 51.1% from June's 50.8%.
- July S&P Global PMI for the services sector — No forecast, but stood at 52.9 in June
- June trade deficit — Expected to swing into a $61.0 billion surplus from a -$75.5 billion deficit in May
Market expectations are important. Higher-than-expected actual figures tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones often pull them downward. On-forecast numbers frequently leave those rates unchanged.
No economic reports are scheduled for tomorrow.
