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Mortgage Rates Today, August 1, 2025: It's Jobs Report Day! Plus Tariffs in Focus

Jobs report: Mortgage rates today

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.61% today, a decrease of 0.04% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.61%, down by 0.07%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.94%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.92%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.

The bigger picture

If any economic report is likely to move mortgage rates, it's the monthly jobs report, officially called the employment situation report. And it's due to land this morning.

Recent jobs reports have shown the employment market remaining remarkably robust, despite talk of employers putting hiring on hold as they contemplate the likely economic impact of higher tariff rates. In June, the economy added 147,000 new jobs, lower than in many recent months but still indicative of solid growth.

Will today's report be similarly robust? Or will it suggest that the economy is finally responding to tariff fears? Read on for details of how to interpret today's data.

The Federal Reserve's role

The Federal Reserve's mandate from Congress is to optimize the relationship between inflation and employment. The Fed itself uses these words: "to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates."

It tries to set its federal funds rate, which directly influences most consumer borrowing costs (but affects mortgage rates only indirectly), in a way that reins in inflation while keeping the employment market buoyant. And it's been pretty successful for many years.

Yesterday's inflation report, the personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) price index, was disappointing for the Fed, which aims to keep inflation at roughly 2%. It showed consumer prices increasing in June by a year-over-year rate of 2.6%.

And the trend is heading in the wrong direction:

  • June 2025 +2.6%
  • May 2025 +2.4%
  • April 2025 +2.2%
  • March 2025 +2.3%

When faced with rising inflation above its target range, the Fed's main way to hold prices in check is to raise the federal funds rate. So, it will likely feel that its decision on Wednesday to hold its rate steady has been vindicated, despite intense political pressure to cut it.

But what if today's jobs report shows the economy creating many fewer jobs than previously? Then the Fed must decide which is the bigger threat to American prosperity: higher inflation or a labor market that's losing steam or even shrinking, something that might eventually lead to a recession.

Since some terrible experiences with inflation in the 1970s and early '80s, most economists advocate dealing with rising prices through higher borrowing costs first. Anti-recessionary rate cuts can come later.

As we said yesterday, not everyone agrees with this classical economic analysis. And a couple of members of the Fed's rate-setting committee rebelled on Wednesday, voting for a rate cut that day.

The other 10 supported the more traditional line. But that could change in the coming months.

Tariffs loom again

Last night, the U.S. government unveiled new tariffs on 92 countries that had yet to conclude trade deals. Some were very high, including 35% on imports from Canada and 38% on Swiss trade.

The Wall Street Journal says:

In recent [overnight] trading:

  • Futures tied to the three main [American] indexes dropped by roughly 1%.
  • U.S. Treasury yields rose. Yields on 10-year notes topped 4.38%.
  • Global stocks fell. French and German indexes fell more than 1%, as did South Korea's Kospi.

Mortgage rates often shadow the yield on 10-year Treasury notes, so we start this morning at a disadvantage.

Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days

Purchase Rates

Loan Type Rate APR Daily Change Monthly Change
30-Year Fixed 6.61% 6.64% -0.04% +0%
15-Year Fixed 5.61% 5.66% -0.07% +0.04%
30-Year Fixed FHA 5.94% 7.14% -0.01% +0.08%
30-Year Fixed VA 6.02% 6.16% -0.01% +0.04%
30-Year Fixed USDA 5.99% 6.13% -0.01% +0.11%
30-Year Fixed Jumbo 6.92% 6.93% -0.01% -0.03%
5/6 Year ARM 6.71% 6.75% -0.02% +0.19%

Refinance Rates

Loan Type Rate APR Daily Change Monthly Change
30-Year Fixed 6.69% 6.72% -0.04% +0.02%
15-Year Fixed 5.61% 5.66% -0.07% +0.03%
30-Year Fixed FHA 5.92% 7.12% -0.01% +0.08%
30-Year Fixed VA 6.06% 6.2% -0.01% +0.08%
5/6 Year ARM 6.77% 6.8% -0.07% +0.2%
How we source rates and rate trends.

Coming up

Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.

Here's Comerica Bank's economics team's take on today's data:

"The labor market likely cooled in July, with a modest addition to payrolls. The unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate, and the average workweek were likely little changed last month."

Mortgage rates today

Today's MarketWatch economic calendar contains five economic reports. But the jobs report for July is likely to overshadow the others.

Jobs reports contain three headline figures:

  • June nonfarm payrolls (jobs created that month) — Expected to fall to 100,000, down from May's 147,000
  • Unemployment rate— Expected to rise to 4.2% following 4.1% in May
  • Hourly wages — Expected to warm to 0.3% following 0.2% in May

Market expectations are important. Higher-than-expected actual figures tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones often pull them downward. On-forecast numbers frequently leave those rates unchanged. The unemployment rate is an exception: the higher that is, the better for mortgage rates.

Other reports today include two purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing sector. Here are all four:

  • July S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI — Expected to increase to 49.9 from 49.5 at the previous reading
  • July manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) — Expected to increase to 49.5% from 49.0% at the previous reading
  • June construction spending — Expected to contract more slowly: by -0.1% compared with -0.3% in May
  • July consumer sentiment (final) — Expected to hold steady at 61.8, unchanged since the previous reading

A couple of these (the ISM PMI and consumer sentiment) sometimes move mortgage rates. But will investors even notice them today as they digest the all-important jobs report?

Also today, vehicle manufacturers will publish their sales data for July. But these will emerge slowly during the day.

About The Author:

Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.

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