The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.27% yesterday, an increase of 0.04% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.43%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.63% yesterday, having risen by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.63%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates nudged higher again yesterday. And they may continue in that direction unless fresh announcements about the Middle East crisis cheer up markets.
Initially, markets responded positively to yesterday's statement, indefinitely extending the ceasefire with Iran, which was due to end today. But they began to have second thoughts as the afternoon wore on.
The problem? Markets are desperate for the conflict to end to limit the damage it's doing to the U.S. economy. Renewing the ceasefire without the Strait of Hormuz being open and with peace talks stalled opens up the prospect of a longer crisis. And its impact on inflation (and so on all interest rates, including mortgage rates) is likely to worsen the longer the dispute lasts.There are no economic reports scheduled for today, so we'll see this morning whether markets remain gloomy.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.27% | 6.3% | +0.04% | -0.21% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.43% | 5.47% | +0.01% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.63% | 6.84% | +0.02% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.75% | 5.89% | +0.02% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.65% | 5.8% | -0.55% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.63% | 6.64% | -0.03% | -0.19% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.93% | 5.97% | +0.02% | -0.08% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.36% | 6.38% | +0.06% | -0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.42% | 5.46% | +0.03% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.62% | 6.83% | +0.02% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.74% | 5.88% | +0.02% | -0.2% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.9% | 5.93% | +0.11% | -0.2% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
It's worth noting that Kevin Warsh is currently undergoing confirmation hearings in the U.S. Senate following his nomination as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. He needs to reassure senators and bond markets (one of which determines mortgage rates) that the Fed will remain politically independent if he is appointed.
If he fails to persuade bond markets of that, mortgage rates might come under more upward pressure.
Comerica Bank's weekly preview
Here's Comerica Bank's take, published Monday, on this week's economic reports:
"Retail sales jumped in March as consumers paid more to fill gas tanks, but sales excluding gasoline stations were likely about flat. Pending home sales likely fell as the war and higher mortgage rates gave some homebuyers cold feet. On the bright side, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Indicator will likely be revised up from the preliminary release, which fell to a record low. Survey responses collected since the ceasefire will likely be stronger, as lower oil prices and calmer financial markets allay consumers’ worries.
"ADP’s weekly private payrolls report will likely deliver another encouraging signal. This relatively new statistic doesn’t move financial markets as much as the monthly jobs reports published by the government and ADP, but it is likely a useful leading indicator for them. This release will likely show job growth rose above 40,000 per week, equivalent to more than 160,000 per month. If borne out in the monthly data, that would be the fastest private payrolls growth since late 2024."
Comerica's predictions sometimes differ from market expectations, which are the consensus of a wider pool of analysts' and economists' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. Friday's consumer sentiment report is the next one likely to noticeably affect mortgage rates. However, even its effect will probably be blunted by markets' current obsession with the Middle East.
