The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.23% yesterday, an increase of 0.02% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.42%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.61% yesterday, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.66%, reflecting a decrease of 0.06%.
The bigger picture
Will this morning's retail sales data for March affect mortgage rates? Those monthly figures often do, but even the most influential economic reports have struggled to be noticed when markets have been so obsessed with news from the Middle East.
Yesterday, mortgage rates began with early rises, but moderated as the day went on. By that evening, they were only a tiny bit higher than last Friday's close.
"U.S. and Iranian officials are expected to kick off a second round of Pakistan-mediated talks in Islamabad on Tuesday, reported Foreign Policy magazine yesterday afternoon. "The aim is to secure a lasting peace deal before Washington’s two-week cease-fire with Tehran expires on Wednesday. However, growing uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz has threatened to upend negotiations before they can even begin."
So, there was little of the certainty markets crave yesterday. And, as we said last week, we doubt mortgage rates will move significantly — up or down — until we get decisive news from the Persian Gulf.
Still, if today's retail sales report is wildly different from what is expected, those rates might move, probably moderately or modestly. We'll have to wait to see.
Scroll on down for more information about today's economic reports and other scheduled for later in the week.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.23% | 6.26% | +0.02% | -0.25% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.42% | 5.46% | +0.02% | -0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.61% | 6.82% | -0.01% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.73% | 5.88% | +0.02% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.21% | 6.36% | +0.61% | +0.42% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.66% | 6.68% | -0.06% | -0.16% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.91% | 5.95% | -0.09% | -0.1% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.3% | 6.33% | +0.04% | -0.23% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.38% | 5.43% | +0.04% | -0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.6% | 6.81% | +-0% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.72% | 5.86% | +0.03% | -0.22% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.79% | 5.83% | -0.11% | -0.31% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's weekly preview
Here's Comerica Bank's take, published Monday, on this week's economic reports:
"Retail sales jumped in March as consumers paid more to fill gas tanks, but sales excluding gasoline stations were likely about flat. Pending home sales likely fell as the war and higher mortgage rates gave some homebuyers cold feet. On the bright side, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Indicator will likely be revised up from the preliminary release, which fell to a record low. Survey responses collected since the ceasefire will likely be stronger, as lower oil prices and calmer financial markets allay consumers’ worries.
"ADP’s weekly private payrolls report will likely deliver another encouraging signal. This relatively new statistic doesn’t move financial markets as much as the monthly jobs reports published by the government and ADP, but it is likely a useful leading indicator for them. This release will likely show job growth rose above 40,000 per week, equivalent to more than 160,000 per month. If borne out in the monthly data, that would be the fastest private payrolls growth since late 2024."
Comerica's predictions sometimes differ from market expectations, which are the consensus of a wider pool of analysts' and economists' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. The March retail sales one is likely to be by far the most consequential for mortgage rates, although we're not expecting fireworks.
Here are those three scheduled reports:
- March retail sales — Markets expect those sales to have grown 1.5% that month, up from February's 0.6%. But note that much of that increase may be due to consumers spending more at gas pumps
- February business inventories — Markets expect inventories to have grown 0.3% that month, compared with a -01% shrinkage in January
- Pending home sales — Markets expect those sales to have grown 0.5% that month, slower than February's 1.8% increase
Typically, mortgage rates fall on worse-than-expected economic data and rise when numbers are better than expected. When figures match or nearly match expectations, those rates rarely move.
However, the situation in the Middle East may continue to overshadow economic reports, robbing them of their usual impact. It depends on how critical events over there get.
No economic reports are scheduled for tomorrow.
