The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.21% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.4%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.62% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.73%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Last Friday morning, we suggested that mortgage rates were unlikely to move far "unless, that is, some solid news emerges about the crisis in the Middle East." It took just a few hours for such news to appear, with the announcement that the Strait of Hormuz was open again.
Stock markets responded with their characteristic exuberance, climbing sharply, while oil prices, bond yields and mortgage rates fell relatively modestly. Unfortunately, over the weekend, the strait closed again, and tensions seem as high as ever.
On the positive side, the U.S. delegation hopes to restart negotiations with Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan, today. Less positively, the U.S. Navy holed and seized an Iranian cargo ship yesterday, something that might hinder talks. When global markets reopened yesterday evening, oil prices rose very quickly by 5%.
So, we begin this week with the environment much less friendly for mortgage rates than it was on Friday. With luck, they may barely budge, but they could rise in response to the grimmer mood.
Once again, all bets are off if fresh news emerges during the day that suggests tensions in the Middle East are diminishing or heightening. Only this news will likely affect mortgage rates, as there are no economic reports scheduled for today.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.21% | 6.24% | +0% | -0.26% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.4% | 5.44% | +0% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.62% | 6.83% | +0% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.71% | 5.85% | +0% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.59% | 5.74% | +0% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.73% | 6.74% | +0% | -0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6% | 6.04% | +0% | -0.01% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.26% | 6.29% | +0% | -0.27% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.35% | 5.39% | +0% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.61% | 6.81% | +0% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.69% | 5.82% | +0% | -0.25% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.9% | 5.94% | +0% | -0.19% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. Tomorrow's March retail sales data comprise the report most likely to affect mortgage rates, with Friday's consumer sentiment index coming in second.
However, the situation in the Middle East may continue to overshadow economic reports, robbing them of their usual impact. It depends on how critical events over there get.
