The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.21% today, a decrease of 0.05% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.4%, down by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.62%, having dropped by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.73%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
"The war in Iran has economists downshifting their outlook for the rest of the year, with the consensus in The Wall Street Journal’s latest quarterly survey pointing to higher inflation, slower near-term growth and weaker job creation," reported the WSJ yesterday. And yet the Big 3 U.S. stock indices powered higher that day.
How to square those two facts? Yesterday, the WSJ's Markets A.M. e-newsletter offered an explanation under the headline "Crazy Is as Crazy Does." The article begins, "For anyone who still believes the stock market is totally rational, the past seven weeks have provided an expensive education."
Bond markets are much more sober (and therefore less volatile) than stock markets. That's why mortgage rates, which are largely set by a specialist bond market, barely budged again yesterday.
With no economic reports due before Tuesday's retail sales data, we wouldn't be surprised to see mortgage rates remain becalmed today and on Monday.
Unless, that is, some solid news emerges about the crisis in the Middle East. Markets seem to be largely shrugging off rumors and political hype, so we suspect it will take a solid de-escalation or re-escalation to move mortgage rates significantly. However, it wouldn't be the first time our predictions have been proved wrong.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.21% | 6.24% | -0.05% | -0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.4% | 5.44% | -0.05% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.62% | 6.83% | -0.03% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.71% | 5.85% | -0.05% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.59% | 5.74% | -0.06% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.73% | 6.74% | +0% | +0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6% | 6.04% | +0.02% | -0.09% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.26% | 6.29% | -0.06% | -0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.35% | 5.39% | -0.07% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.61% | 6.81% | -0.02% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.69% | 5.82% | -0.05% | -0.14% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.9% | 5.94% | -0.01% | -0.13% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar, nor on Monday's.
