The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.27% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.46%, down by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.65% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.74%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
"The conflict in the Middle East was cited [in interviews with businesses] as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture," said the Federal Reserve's beige book, published yesterday afternoon.
You wouldn't know about such concerns looking at stock indices yesterday. The S&P broke through 7000, setting its first record high since January, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Bond markets (one of which determines mortgage rates) are generally more cautious than stock markets, and yields on 10-year Treasury notes actually rose yesterday, which is a bad sign for the economy and mortgage rates. However, those rates themselves barely budged.
We doubt there will be decisive movements in mortgage rates until there's firm news — good or bad — about talks over the future of the Middle East. Today's economic reports rarely affect those rates much, and no reports are scheduled for tomorrow.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.27% | 6.29% | +-0% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.46% | 5.51% | -0.05% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.65% | 6.86% | +-0% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.78% | 5.92% | +0% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.65% | 5.8% | -0.03% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.74% | 6.76% | +0.01% | -0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.01% | 6.05% | +0% | -0.06% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.33% | 6.35% | -0.01% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.43% | 5.47% | -0.03% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.63% | 6.84% | +0% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.75% | 5.89% | +0% | -0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.96% | 6% | -0.03% | -0.1% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's Preview of the Week Ahead
Here are excerpts from Comerica Bank's weekly preview, published Monday:
"Echoing last week’s CPI release, producer prices rose sharply in March as the Iran war pushed up prices of crude and refined petroleum products and transportation charges. Producer price inflation was already outpacing CPI and PCE inflation before the war, and the gap is widening. This mostly reflects the larger weight of petroleum products and other commodities in the PPI compared to the consumer basket. Even so, the longer producer prices stay high, the more they will pull up consumer prices beyond those paid at the gas pump.
"Industrial production is forecast to rise solidly in the March report on stronger manufacturing and mining output. Utilities production likely fell as the weather turned milder. U.S. crude oil production trended lower in March but will soon increase if high prices are sustained."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are based on a consensus of forecasts from a wider pool of economists and analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. In theory, any report can affect mortgage rates if it contains sufficiently shocking data, but today's rarely have a noticeable impact. And that's especially true when markets are fixated on events in the Middle East.
Still, here are this morning's three reports, including market expectations:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Apr. 11 — Markets expect 215,000 new claims for unemployment benefits that week, down from 219,000 the previous week
- April's Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey — Markets expect a steep decline in the reading, to 12.0 from 18.1 in March
- March industrial production — Markets expect production to slow to 0.0% from 0.2% in February
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
