The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.27% today, unchanged since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.46%, down by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.65%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.74%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
"A lot is happening today and tomorrow. We have all the ingredients of a [Middle East] deal, but it's not all there yet," a senior U.S. official told Fox News' Bill Hemmer yesterday morning. That set off a good day for mortgage rates, which was only boosted later by similarly optimistic comments from President Donald Trump and U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres.
Mortgage rates only nudged modestly downward, but that was enough to set a recent low. The last time they were lower was Mar. 17.
Today's import price index is typically the least important of the monthly inflation reports. Unless it contains some truly surprising data, it may struggle to attract the attention of markets focused on the Middle East.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.27% | 6.29% | +-0% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.46% | 5.51% | -0.05% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.65% | 6.86% | +-0% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.78% | 5.92% | +0% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.65% | 5.8% | -0.03% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.74% | 6.76% | +0.01% | -0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.01% | 6.05% | +0% | -0.06% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.33% | 6.35% | -0.01% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.43% | 5.47% | -0.03% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.63% | 6.84% | +0% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.75% | 5.89% | +0% | -0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.96% | 6% | -0.03% | -0.1% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's Preview of the Week Ahead
Here are excerpts from Comerica Bank's weekly preview, published Monday:
"Echoing last week’s CPI release, producer prices rose sharply in March as the Iran war pushed up prices of crude and refined petroleum products and transportation charges. Producer price inflation was already outpacing CPI and PCE inflation before the war, and the gap is widening. This mostly reflects the larger weight of petroleum products and other commodities in the PPI compared to the consumer basket. Even so, the longer producer prices stay high, the more they will pull up consumer prices beyond those paid at the gas pump.
"Industrial production is forecast to rise solidly in the March report on stronger manufacturing and mining output. Utilities production likely fell as the weather turned milder. U.S. crude oil production trended lower in March but will soon increase if high prices are sustained."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are based on a consensus of forecasts from a wider pool of economists and analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports and a Federal Reserve publication on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. If markets remain euphoric about the chances of a Middle East settlement, none of those calendar events is likely to make much difference to mortgage rates.
If any does, it's probably going to be the March import price index (IPI). "The Import/Export Price Indexes (MXP) of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics contain data on changes in prices ofnonmilitary goods and services traded between the United States and the rest of the world. These measures show how prices for a market basket of imported or exported goods and services change from one period to the next."
Here are this morning's three reports, including market expectations:
- March IPI — Markets expect all prices to have risen by 2.4% that month, much more quickly than February's 1.3%
- April's Empire State manufacturing survey — Markets expect the reading to fall to -0.5% from March's -0.2%
- April's home builder confidence index — Markets expect confidence to fall to 37 from 38 in March
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
At 2 p.m. Eastern this afternoon, we're due the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. "Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year," explains the Fed. "Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector."
Only occasionally does the book affect mortgage rates perceptibly.
