The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.43% yesterday, an increase of 0.01% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.48%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.69% yesterday, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.69%, reflecting a decrease of 0.08%.
The bigger picture
Wall Street is relying on this Friday's jobs report for a steer on how the economy is doing. But that report won't appear if a government shutdown starts at midnight tonight and isn't resolved by Friday morning.
The Barron's Daily e-newsletter yesterday said, "A shutdown could delay the publication of September’s jobs report as all nonessential work — including statistical releases — is halted. That’s an issue for a nervous market looking for reassurance that the Federal Reserve is still on track for an extended cycle of interest-rate cuts. A couple of days might not be a huge disruption, but a significant shutdown — like the 35-day impasse in President Donald Trump’s first term — would challenge the strength of the bull market."
Government shutdown likely
Yesterday afternoon, the White House hosted a meeting of the two leaders of each party in the House and Senate. As it broke up, none of the attendees seemed at all optimistic about the prospects for an agreement.
And so, at the time of writing, a shutdown looks all but inevitable. The main question now is how long it will last.
Of course, a shutdown will affect only official reports published by the government. So, private sector reports, including the ADP employment report tomorrow, should still be published, as will four purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) from the Institute for Supply Management and S&P Global, due this week.
What a shutdown might mean for mortgage rates
Markets, like nature, abhor a vacuum, so those reports that are published may take on much more significance than they usually have. And mortgage rates could have a bumpy week.
Still, those rates often head in the same direction as stock indices. So, if stock prices do fall, as Barron's suggested, that could be good news for mortgage rates.
Slower mortgage applications
However, there may be delays in processing some home buyers' mortgage applications. In particular, it may not be possible to get tax transcripts from the IRS or to verify social security numbers. And federal employees will find their lenders unable to verify their employment status.
Meanwhile, those applying for some government-backed mortgages from the VA and USDA may find the process grinding even more slowly than normal, according to the NAR.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.43% | 6.46% | +0.01% | -0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.48% | 5.53% | +-0% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.69% | 6.9% | -0.01% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.79% | 5.94% | +0% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.75% | 5.9% | -0.01% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.69% | 6.71% | -0.08% | +0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.4% | 6.44% | +0.03% | -0.07% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.51% | 6.53% | +0.01% | +-0% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.47% | 5.51% | +0.01% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.64% | 6.85% | -0.01% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.83% | 5.97% | +0% | -0.07% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.46% | 6.49% | +0.08% | -0.04% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's take on economic reports scheduled for this week, whether or not they actually appear. The quote is taken from its Economic Weekly e-newsletter:
"The September jobs report is forecast to show another month of modest employment growth, holding the unemployment rate steady. The labor force participation rate, the average workweek, earnings, and job openings likely eased. The ISM PMIs are forecast to show the manufacturing sector in continued contraction, but the services sector in expansion. Led by a steep decline in homebuilding, construction spending is forecast to fall for the tenth month running. House prices probably edged lower again in July, with a further slowdown in annual house price increases. Pending home sales likely rebounded as mortgage rates fell."
Mortgage rates today
Two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar are especially likely to move mortgage rates:
- August job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) — Markets expect 7.1 million job openings, down from July's 7.2 million. If markets believe this will be the last official employment data for a while, they might treat it as especially influential.
- September consumer confidence index — Markets expect a fall to 95.8 from August's 97.4.
For most reports, a higher-than-expected number tends to push mortgage rates upward, while a lower-than-expected one might drag them downward. As-forecast figures may leave those rates virtually unchanged.
A couple of other reports are also due today. They're the July S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) and the September Chicago Business Barometer. However, these rarely affect mortgage rates.
