The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.41% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.48%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.7% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.77%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Pretty much all sources agree that mortgage rates nudged up last week. Why?
It was probably mostly down to economic reports showing the economy as stronger than many thought, while inflation remains uncomfortably warm. That's a double-whammy to hopes of lower interest rates.
Employment is hugely important
Although lots of reports are showing a surprisingly strong economy, the key measure is how the labor market is holding up. And four reports this week will provide insights into how that's doing.
By far the most important is Friday's official jobs report (formally called the employment situation report) for September. Most months, this report is the single biggest driver of markets and mortgage rates.
Other employment data due this week include:
- The August job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) — It's always slightly out of date, but it provides a helpful peek under the hood of the labor market. Due tomorrow.
- September's ADP employment report — This measures changes in payrolls only in the private sector. But some see it as a bellwether for the official jobs report. Due Wednesday.
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 27 — How many fresh claims for unemployment benefits are people making each week? Weekly data tend to be too volatile to be useful, but with an imminent jobs report, investors may take this one seriously. Due Thursday.
Other reports this week
Although other economic reports are scheduled for this week, those related to employment are likely to dominate. Still, a few others might affect mortgage rates, notably, a couple of purchasing managers' indices, the consumer confidence index, factory orders, and construction spending.Government shutdown imminent
The federal government is due to shut down at midnight tomorrow unless legislators on Capitol Hill can reach a compromise. The government is now threatening mass firings of civil servants if a deal isn't agreed before then.
Shutdowns don't typically do the economy any favors, so this one might at least partially counteract strong economic data and help mortgage rates stay lower than otherwise.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.41% | 6.44% | +0% | -0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.48% | 5.53% | +0% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.7% | 6.91% | +0% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.79% | 5.94% | +0% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.76% | 5.9% | +0% | +-0% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.77% | 6.79% | +0% | +0.15% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.37% | 6.41% | +0% | -0.1% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.49% | 6.52% | +0% | -0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.46% | 5.51% | +0% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.65% | 6.86% | +0% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.83% | 5.97% | +0% | -0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.4% | 6.43% | +0% | -0.11% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There is only one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. And it rarely has a perceptible impact on mortgage rates.
That's pending home sales during August. The number is expected to hold steady, having grown 0.4% in July.For most reports, a higher-than-expected number tends to push mortgage rates upward, while a lower-than-expected one might drag them downward. As-forecast figures may leave those rates virtually unchanged.
However, if mortgage rates move today, it's likely to be down to a cause other than this lone report.
